Please wait a minute...
高级检索
高原气象  2018, Vol. 37 Issue (2): 535-544    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00055
论文     
1958—2015年敦煌及周边地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征
李培都1,2, 司建华1, 冯起1, 赵春彦1,2, 王春林1,2
1. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 阿拉善荒漠生态水文实验研究站/内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730000;
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 101408
Temporal and Spatial Variation of Extreme Precipitation Events in Dunhuang and Surrounding Areas from 1958 to 2015
LI Peidu1,2, SI Jianhua1, FENG Qi1, ZHAO Chunyan1,2, WANG Chunlin1,2
1. Key laboratory of Eco-Hydrology of inland river basin, Alxa desert Eco-Hydrological experimental research station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China;
2. University of Chinese Academy of sciences, Beijing 101408, China
 全文: PDF(10741 KB)  
摘要: 敦煌阳关南临祁连山,每年汛期都会受到来自肃北、阿克塞和当地洪水的影响,2~3年就有一场特大洪灾,同时洪水携带的泥石流不仅污染了当地赖以生存的唯一水源,还造成水资源的严重破坏。基于敦煌及周边邻近1958-2015年6个气象站点全年逐日降水资料(祁连站资料为1958-2013年),采用Manner-Kendall突变检验、小波分析和Kriging插值等方法分析了敦煌及周边地区地区极端降水事件的变化趋势、周期特征及空间分布特征。结果表明,极端降水频次除了马鬃山呈现减少趋势外,敦煌、瓜州、酒泉、玉门和祁连均呈现增长趋势,极端降水频次的年倾斜增率分别为-0.063,0.127,0.072,0.138,0.104和0.638 d·(10a)-1;在极端降水强度突变分析中,UF统计量呈倒"V"型变化趋势,即发生了先增加后减少的变化趋势,发生变化的时间点为1980年左右;根据极端降水强度小波方差分析可知,在研究时段内敦煌、瓜州、酒泉、马鬃山、玉门和祁连控制极端降水强度的主控周期有53,22,36,56和58年时间尺度,日最大降水量、极端降水总量和极端降水强度都呈现出从西到东的梯度增加趋势空间分布特征。
关键词: 敦煌及周边地区极端降水事件时空变化    
Abstract: Dunhuang Yangguan in the south of Qilian Mountain, where the flood season comes from the floods of Subei, Aksai and the local floods every year, it had a disastrous floods in 2~3 years, meanwhile, the flood carrying debris flow to polluted the unique survival local water sources and caused the serious damage of water resources. Sub-daily rainfall extremes may be associated with flash flooding, particularly in mountain regions, but compared with extremes on daily timescales, they have been relatively little studied in mountain regions. In the recent decade, extreme precipitation events have let to numerous flash floods in and around the Duhuang region. Based on the daily precipitation data from 1958 to 2015 (the weather station of Qilian data from 1958 to 2013) of six weather stations in Dunhuang neighborhood, that is, Mazongshan, Dunhuang, Guazhou, Jiuquan, Yumen and Qilian, period characteristics and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events were analyzed by the Manner-Kendall mutation test, wavelet analysis and kriging interpolation in Dunhuang area which can provide the basis for water resources management and flood control and disaster reduction. The results indicated that the frequencies of extreme precipitation in Dunhuang, Guazhou, Jiuquan, Yumen and Qilian are all increasing in addition to the decreasing trend of Mazongshan. The annual rainfall increments of extreme precipitation are -0.063, 0.127, 0.072, 0.138, 0.104 and 0.638 d·(10a)-1, respectively. In the extreme precipitation intensity mutation analysis, the UF statistic showed the trend of "V" type, namely, the trend of increasing first and then decreasing, The control periods of extreme precipitation intensity have 53-year, 22-year, 36-year, 56-year and 58-year time scale in Dunhuang, Guazhou, Jiuquan, Mazongshan, Yumen and Qilian according to the result of the extreme precipitation intensity wavelet analysis. Daily maximum precipitation, extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation intensity show the spatial distribution characteristics of gradient from west to east.
Key words: Dunhuang and surrounding areas    extreme precipitation event    temporal and spatial variation
收稿日期: 2017-04-14 出版日期: 2018-04-28
ZTFLH:  P426.62  
基金资助: 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400908)
通讯作者: 司建华,E-mail:jianhuas@lzb.ac.cn     E-mail: jianhuas@lzb.ac.cn
作者简介: 李培都(1989),男,甘肃庆阳人,硕士研究生,主要从事寒区旱区水资源利用、洪涝灾害评估相关研究E-mail:lpeidu@126.com
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章  
李培都
司建华
冯起
赵春彦
王春林

引用本文:

李培都, 司建华, 冯起, 赵春彦, 王春林. 1958—2015年敦煌及周边地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(2): 535-544.

LI Peidu, SI Jianhua, FENG Qi, ZHAO Chunyan, WANG Chunlin. Temporal and Spatial Variation of Extreme Precipitation Events in Dunhuang and Surrounding Areas from 1958 to 2015. PLATEAU METEOROLOGY, 2018, 37(2): 535-544.

链接本文:

http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00055        http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V37/I2/535

Easterling D R, Meehl G A, Parmesan C, et al, 2000. Climate extremes:Observations, modeling and impacts[J]. Science, 289(5487):2068-2074.
Alexander L V, Zhang X, Peterson T C, et al, 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J]. J Geophys Res, 2006, 111(D5):D05109. DOI:10.1029/2005JD006290.
Omondi P A, Awange J L, Forootan E, et al, 2014. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa region from 1961 to 2010[J]. Int J Climatol, 34(4):1262-1277.
You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, et al, 2011. Changes in daily climate extremes in China and their connection to the large scale atmospheric circulation during 19612003[J]. Climate Dyn, 36(11/12):2399-2417.
Marques S C, Azeiteiro U M, Martinho F, et al, 2007. Climate variability and planktonic communities:the effect of an extreme event (severe drought) in a southern European estuary[J]. Estuarine Coastal Shelf Sci, 73(3/4):725-734.
Zhai P, Zhang X, Wan H, et al, 2005. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J]. J Climate, 18(7):1096-1108.
曹瑜, 游庆龙, 马茜蓉, 等, 2017. 青藏高原夏季极端降水概率分布特征[J]. 高原气象, 36(5):1176-1187. Cao Y, You Q L, Ma Q R, et al, 2017. Probability distribution for extreme precipitation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Plateau Meteor, 36(5):1176-1187. DOI:10.7522/j. issn. 1000-0534.2016.00131.
陈海山, 范苏丹, 张新华, 2009. 中国近50a极端降水事件变化特征的季节性差异[J]. 大气科学学报, 32(6):744-751. Chen H S, Fan S D, Zhang X H, 2009. Seasonal differences of variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events over China in the last 50 years[J]. Trans Atmos Sci, 32(6):744-751.
陈洪滨, 范学花, 2007.2006年极端天气和气候事件及其他相关事件的概要回顾[J]. 气候与环境研究, 12(1):100-112. Chen H B, Fan X H, 2007. Some extreme events of weather, climate and related phenomena in 2006[J]. Climate Environ Res, 12(1):100-112.
程瑛, 徐殿祥, 郭铌, 2008. 近20年来祁连山区植被变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 25(6):772-777. Cheng Y, Xu D X, Guo N, 2008. Analysis on the vegetation change in the Qilian Mountains since recent 22 years[J]. Arid Zone Res, 25(6):772-777.
高西宁, 蒋姗姗, 王耸, 等, 2016. 东北地区1961-2014年降水量变化分区及其区域特征[J]. 生态学杂志, 35(5):1301-1307. Gao X N, Jiang S S, Wang S, et al, 2016. The division of precipitation change and its regional characteristics in Northeast China during 1961-2014[J]. Chinese J Ecology, 35(5):1301-1307.
黄玉霞, 王宝鉴, 王研峰, 等, 2017. 东亚夏季风的变化特征及其对甘肃夏季暴雨日数的影响[J]. 中国沙漠, 37(1):140-147. Huang Y X, Wang B J, Wang Y F, et al, 2017. Variation of east Asian summer monsoon and its influences on summer rainstorm days in Gansu, China[J]. J Desert Res, 37(1):140-147.
姜德娟, 李志, 王昆, 2011.1961-2008年山东省极端降水事件的变化趋势分析[J]. 地理科学, 31(9):1118-1124. Jiang D J, Li Z, Wang K, 2010. Trends of extreme precipitation events over Shandong province form 1961 to 2008[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 31(9):1118-1124.
贾文雄, 张禹舜, 李宗省, 2014. 近50年来祁连山及河西走廊地区极端降水的时空变化研究[J]. 地理科学, 34(8):1002-1009. Jia W X, Zhang Y S, Li Z X, 2014. Spatial and temporal change of precipitation extremes in Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor in recent fifty years[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 34(8):1002-1009.
李明刚, 管兆勇, 韩洁, 等, 2012. 近50a华东地区夏季极端降水事件的年代际变化[J]. 大气科学学报, 35(5):591-602. Li M G, Guan Z Y, Han J, et al, 2012. Interdecadal changes of summertime precipitation extremes in East China in recent five decades[J]. Trans Atmos Sci, 35(5):591-602.
李运刚, 何大明, 胡金明, 等, 2012. 红河流域1960-2007年极端降水事件的时空变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 27(11):1908-1917. Li Y G, He D M, Hu J M, et al, 2012. Spatial and temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the Red River Basin during 1960-2007[J]. J Natural Resour, 27(11):1908-1917.
李志, 刘文兆, 郑粉莉, 2010.1965年至2005年泾河流域极端降水事件的变化趋势分析[J]. 资源科学, 32(08):1527-1532. Li Z, Liu W Z, Zheng F L, 2010. Analyzing variation trends in extreme precipitation events in the Jing River watershed during 19652005[J]. Resour Sci, 32(8):1527-1532.
马学谦, 孙安平, 2011. 祁连山区降水的大气特征分析[J]. 高原气象, 30(5):1392-1398. Ma X Q, Sun A P, 2011. Analysis on atmospheric characteristic of precipitation in Qilian Mountain[J]. Plateau Meteor, 30(5):1392-1398.
欧阳琳, 阳坤, 秦军, 等, 2017. 喜马拉雅山区降水研究进展与展望[J]. 高原气象, 36(5):1165-1175. Ouyang L, Yang K, Qin J, et al, 2017. Advances and perspectives in precipitation research for Himalayan Mountains[J]. Plateau Meteor, 36(5):1165-1175. DOI:10.7522/j. issn. 1000-0534.2016.00111.
邱海军, 曹明明, 曾彬, 2011. 基于小波分析的西安降水时间序列的变化特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 32(1):23-27. Qiu H J, Cao M M, Zeng B, 2011. Wavelet analysis on the temporal series of precipitation in Xi'an[J]. Chinese J Agrometeor, 32(1):23-27.
施雅风, 沈永平, 李栋梁, 等, 2003. 中国西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的特征和趋势探讨[J]. 第四纪研究, 23(2):152-164. Shi Y F, Shen Y P, Li D L, et al, 2003. Discussion on the present climate change from warm-day to warm-wet in Northwest China[J]. Quaternary Sciences, 23(2):152-164.
杨金虎, 江志红, 王鹏祥, 等, 2008. 中国年极端降水事件的时空分布特征[J]. 气候与环境研究, 13(1):75-83. Yang J H, Jiang Z H, Wang P X, et al. 2008. Temporal and spatial characteristic of extreme precipitation event in China[J]. Climate Environ Res, 13(1):75-83.
杨莲梅, 2003. 新疆极端降水的气候变化[J]. 地理学报, 58 (4):577-583. Yang L M, 2003. Climate change of extreme precipitation in Xinjiang[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 58 (4):577-583.
杨志刚, 建军, 洪建昌, 2014.1961-2010年西藏极端降水事件时空分布特征[J]. 高原气象, 33(1):37-42. Yang Z G, Jian J, Hong J C, 2014. Temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events in Tibet during 1961-2010[J]. Plateau Meteor, 33(1):37-42. DOI:10.7522/j. issn.1000-0534.2013.00147.
袁文德, 郑江坤, 董奎, 2014.1962-2012年西南地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征[J]. 资源科学, 36(4):766-772. Yuan W D, Zheng J K, Dong K, 2014. Spatial and temporal variation in extreme precipitation events in Southwestern China during 1962-2012[J]. Resour Sci, 36(4):766-772.
翟盘茂, 潘晓华, 2003. 中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J]. 地理学报, 58(增刊1):1-10. Zhai P M, Pan X H, 2003. Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over Northern China during the second half of the 20th century[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 58(suppl1):1-10.
翟盘茂, 王萃萃, 李威, 2007. 极端降水事件变化的观测研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 3(3):144-148. Zhai P M, Wang C C, Li W, 2007. A review on study of change in precipitation extremes[J]. Adv Climate Change Res, 3(3):144-148.
曾波, 闫彩霞, 余莲, 2016. 我国南方地区1960-2009年冬季气温分析[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 36(2):46-52. Zeng B, Yan C X, Yu L, 2016. Analysis of winter temperature in South China during 1960-2009[J]. Plateau Mountain Meteor Res, 36(2):46-52.
[1] 鲍媛媛, 康志明. 2010年亚洲夏季风环流异常特征及其对中国雨带的影响[J]. , 2014, 33(5): 1217-1228.
[2] 苗爱梅, 郝振荣, 贾利冬, 李苗. “0702”山西大暴雨过程的多尺度特征[J]. 高原气象, 2014, 33(3): 786-800.
[3] 张虹, 李国平, 王曙东. 西南涡区域暴雨的中尺度滤波分析[J]. 高原气象, 2014, 33(2): 361-371.
[4] 徐宝祥, 周秀骥. 海峡两岸及邻近地区暴雨试验研究的进展[J]. 高原气象, 1999, 18(3): 436-440.
[5] 马振锋. 大气中低频重力波指数与西南低涡发展及其暴雨的关系[J]. 高原气象, 1994, 13(1): 50-56.