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高原气象  2018, Vol. 37 Issue (2): 325-332    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00038
论文     
气候变暖背景下西藏高原雪灾变化及其与大气环流的关系
黄晓清1, 唐叔乙2, 次旺顿珠1
1. 西藏自治区气候中心, 西藏 拉萨 850000;
2. 西藏自治区气象台, 西藏 拉萨 850000
Variation of the Snow Disasters under Global Warming and Its Relationship with General Circulation over Tibetan Plateau
HUANG Xiaoqing1, TANG Shuyi2, CIWANG Dunzhu1
1. Tibet climate Center, Lhasa 850000, Tibet, China;
2. Tibet Weather Obseratory, Lhasa 850000, Tibet, China
 全文: PDF(5125 KB)  
摘要: 利用西藏高原高海拔牧区1979年10月至2013年4月19个气象站逐日积雪资料、月降水量和月平均温度资料,依据积雪深度和积雪持续日数组合的雪灾指标,分析了不同等级雪灾的气候变化特征及温度和降雪对雪灾变化的影响。结果表明,11月至翌年2月是西藏高原雪灾多发期且灾害程度重,全年发生中度以上雪灾的概率大,占总站次的54%;1979年以来雪灾变化总体呈现减少趋势,但存在着年代际变化,即1980-1997年代表现为波动性上升,1998-2007年呈显著减少趋势,此后略有回升,突变点在1999年和2008年;温度与雪灾相关性比降雪更高,温度具有显著增暖而降雪变化不明显,温度对雪灾气候变化起着决定性作用。分析了大气环流系统与雪灾变化关系得出:西风带南支槽活跃和东半球极涡偏强、东亚大槽和副热带高压偏西时雪灾易发生,反之则然;西风带南支槽和东半球极涡的变化趋势及突变点与西藏高原雪灾的变化趋势和突变点非常一致,是西藏高原雪灾变化的一个可能原因。
关键词: 西藏高原雪灾温度气候变化大气环流    
Abstract: By using the daily snow data, monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature data of 19 meteorological stations in high altitude pastoral areas of Tibet plateau from October 1979 to April 2013, and based on the snow disaster index of snow depth and snow last days, the climate change characteristics of different grade snow storms and the impact of changes in temperature and snowfall of snow storms were analyzed. The results show that the period from November to the next February is the high incidence of snowstorms in the Tibetan plateau and the disasters are very severe, with the big probability of moderate or above snowstorms occurring throughout the year, which accounts for 54% of the total number of stations; The snow disaster change showed a decrease trend since 1979, but there exists a decadal variability, which is characterized by higher volatility in 1980-1997 and show a significantly reducing trend since 1998-2007, since then up slightly, the point mutation is in 1999 and 2008; The correlation between temperature and snowstorm is higher than that of snowfall, the temperature is significantly warmer, but the snowfall changes are not obvious, so the temperature plays a decisive role in the snowstorm climate change. The relationship between the atmospheric circulation system and the snow disaster was analyzed, and it is concluded that it is prone to snow disaster when the west wind belt and the eastern hemispheric vortex become stronger and the east Asian trough and the subtropical high become more west, and vice versa. The variation trend and mutation point of the western wind belt south branch trough and the eastern hemispheric vortex are very consistent with the change trend and mutation point of the snow disaster in the Tibetan plateau, which is a possible cause of the snowstorm changes in the Tibetan plateau.
Key words: Tibetan Plateau    snow disaster    temperature    climate change    atmospheric circulation
收稿日期: 2016-10-12 出版日期: 2018-04-28
:  P429  
基金资助: 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406015)
作者简介: 黄晓清(1966),女,甘肃舟曲人,正高级工程师,主要从事短期气候预测研究.E-mail:huangxq16@163.com
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引用本文:

黄晓清, 唐叔乙, 次旺顿珠. 气候变暖背景下西藏高原雪灾变化及其与大气环流的关系[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(2): 325-332.

HUANG Xiaoqing, TANG Shuyi, CIWANG Dunzhu. Variation of the Snow Disasters under Global Warming and Its Relationship with General Circulation over Tibetan Plateau. Plateau Meteorology, 2018, 37(2): 325-332.

链接本文:

http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00038        http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V37/I2/325

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