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高原气象  2014, Vol. 33 Issue (2): 483-494    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00188
论文     
日本高分辨率模式对中国降水预报能力的客观检验
潘留杰1, 张宏芳2, 王建鹏1, 宁志谦3
1. 陕西省气象台, 西安 710014;
2. 陕西省气象服务中心, 西安 710014;
3. 陕西省气象局, 西安 710014
An Objective Verification of Forecasting Ability of Japan High-Resolution Model Precipitation in China
PAN Liujie1, ZHANG Hongfang2, WANG Jianpeng1, NING Zhiqian3
1. Shaanxi Meteorological Observatory,Xi'an 710014, China;
2. Shaanxi Meteorological Service Centre, Xi'an 710014, China;
3. Shaanxi Meteorological Bureau,Xi'an 710014, China
 全文: PDF(8000 KB)  
摘要:

利用2012年4月1日8月31日中国2419个台站逐6 h降水资料、CMORPH(NOAA Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method)卫星与中国3万余个自动站逐时降水融合资料,基于客观统计方法,分别检验了日本高分辨率模式对中国逐6 h、12 h和24 h分段站点、格点降水的预报能力。结果表明:(1)模式晴雨预报技巧随分段间隔的增加整体增加,暴雨预报技巧在12 h分段表现相对较好;(2)就站点检验来说,模式晴雨预报的降水频数高于观测,6 h和12 h分段暴雨预报低于观测频数,24 h分段则与观测基本一致,通过计算调整阈值可以明显改善技巧评分;(3)6 h分段降水标准差比值<1,出现预报为中雨,而观测为暴雨或小雨的概率增大,24 h分段则相反;(4)整体而言,模式对东南地区的预报技巧高于西北地区,但沿海地区降水的偶然性更大;(5)模式预报与高分辨率卫星、自动站融合降水产品有更好的一致性,阈值调整的空间相对有限;(6)东南地区预报与观测的相关性大于西北地区,模式对东部沿海地区降水量级的预报比西部地区更为合理。

关键词: 日本高分辨率模式技巧评分泰勒图    
Abstract:

Based on objective statistics, using precipitation data collected every 6 h at 2419 stations from 1 April to 31 August 2012, and hourly rainfall data fusion by CMORPH(NOAA Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method)satellites and more than 30 thousand automatic stations, Japan high resolution mode precipitation forecasting abilities in China by every 6 h, 12 h and 24 h segment was tested. The results show that: (1) Rain or shine forecast skill scores gradually increases with segment intervals increasing, torrential rain forecast skill scores have better performance at 12 h segment than others. (2) On station verification, the precipitation frequency of model rain or shine forecasts is higher than observed frequency, while the 6 h, 12 h segment torrential rain forecast is lower than observed frequency. But for 24 h segment, the torrential rain forecast frequency basically agrees with the observed one. By changing threshold values, forecast skill scores can be improved. (3) 6 h fractional precipitation standard deviation rations are <1, so the more probability of moderate rains are forecasted but heavy or light rains appears, but for 24 h, the case is on the contrary. (4) Generally speaking, forecast skill scores are higher in the southeast areas than in the north west areas, but it may rains unexpectedly in coastal areas. (5) Model prediction consists with high resolution satellite and automatic station fusion precipitation products better and the threshold adjustment is limited. (6) The relevance between forecasting and observing is higher in the southeast area than in the northwest area. The model can forecast precipitation more reasonably in coastal areas than the west area.

Key words: Japan high-resolution model    Skill score    Taylor diagram
收稿日期: 2012-10-24 出版日期: 2014-04-24
:  P456.7  
基金资助:

中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2014070);陕西省气象局数值模式应用团队;陕西省气象局预报员专项(2012Y6)

作者简介: 潘留杰(1978-),男,陕西石泉人,高级工程师,主要从事天气预报与研究. E-mail:pljmtgh57245@sina.com
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引用本文:

潘留杰, 张宏芳, 王建鹏, 宁志谦. 日本高分辨率模式对中国降水预报能力的客观检验[J]. 高原气象, 2014, 33(2): 483-494.

PAN Liujie, ZHANG Hongfang, WANG Jianpeng, NING Zhiqian. An Objective Verification of Forecasting Ability of Japan High-Resolution Model Precipitation in China. PLATEAU METEOROLOGY, 2014, 33(2): 483-494.

链接本文:

http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00188        http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/Y2014/V33/I2/483

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