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高原气象  2016, Vol. 35 Issue (6): 1487-1497    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00089
论文     
热带大气季节内振荡对华西秋雨的影响
赵佳玉1,2, 马振峰3, 范广洲1
1. 成都信息工程大学, 成都 610225;
2. 亳州市气象局, 亳州 236800;
3. 四川省气候中心, 成都 610072
Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Autumn Rainfall in West China
ZHAO Jiayu1,2, MA Zhenfeng3, FAN Guangzhou1
1. Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;
2. Bozhou Meteorological Bureau, Bozhou 236800, China;
3. Sichuan Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, China
 全文: PDF(26079 KB)   HTML
摘要:

热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)对中国的降水具有明显的调节作用,研究MJO对华西秋雨的影响对于提高华西秋雨的季节内预测能力具有重要的意义。利用1979-2012年9-10月澳大利亚气象局提供的实时多变量MJO指数、中国台站逐日降水资料以及NCEP再分析资料,通过异常合成分析的方法研究了MJO对华西秋雨的影响以及相应环流背景场的变化。研究表明,在MJO对流主体自西向东传播的过程中,华西地区的秋季降水量呈先增加后减少的趋势。当MJO对流主体位于印度洋中西部(1~2位相)时,华西秋雨偏多,当MJO对流主体位于印度洋东部至太平洋中西部(3~8位相)时,华西秋雨偏少。其中MJO对流主体位于中东印度洋(第2位相)和西太平洋(第7位相)时,华西地区秋季有降水最大正异常和最大负异常。与此同时,对应分析MJO不同位相上的高空形势场和中低空流场、水汽输送、垂直运动的异常变化发现:第1、2位相时,我国上空出现两槽一脊、西低东高的环流形势,此时华西地区冷空气活动频繁,且孟加拉湾、南海和西太平洋对华西地区的水汽输送较强,有利于干冷与暖湿气流在华西地区交汇,水汽辐合、上升运动亦显著,从而造成降水偏多;第7位相时,我国上空受较强的西风带长波脊控制,并且三个海区对华西地区的水汽输送较弱,水汽辐散、下沉运动亦较强,造成降水偏少。

关键词: 热带大气季节内振荡MJO华西秋雨环流形势水汽输送垂直运动    
Abstract:

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) plays a regulatory role on rainfall in China, studying the impact of MJO on autumn rainfall in West China has important significance for improving intraseasonal prediction ability of autumn rainfall in West China. Anomaly composite analyses have been conducted to investigate the impact of MJO on autumn rainfall in West China and the circulation background fields corresponding characteristics by using the real-time multivariate MJO index from Australian Meteorological Bureau and the daily rainfall of gauge stations in China and the daily NCEP reanalysis data from September to October during 1979-2012. The results show that autumn rainfall patterns change from enhanced to suppressed in West China when the main MJO convective body propagating from west to east. When the main MJO convective body is situated over the central and western Indian Ocean(at phase 1~2), autumn rainfall in West China is above normal level. When the main MJO convective body is situated over the eastern Indian Ocean and central and western Pacific Ocean(at phase 3~8), autumn rainfall in West China is below normal level. The maximum positive and negative rainfall anomalies are found when the main MJO convective body is situated over the central and eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean, exactly at phase 2 and phase 7. At the same time, analyzing the corresponding anomalies in the upper air circulation field and the middle-lower flow field, water vapor transportation and vertical motion at various MJO phases. At phase1 and phase 2, we find that the circulation feature is two trough-one ridge pattern or west low-east high pattern over China, the activity of cold air in West China is frequent at this point, and water vapor from Bay of Bengal, South China Sea and Western Pacific Ocean transports to West China is strong, which will helps dry-cold air meets with warm-wet air in West China, the water vapor convergence and upward motion are significant, such environment is in favor of rainfall enhancement. In contrast, at phase 7, we find that China is under the control of the westerly long wave high pressure ridge, and water vapor from the three ocean areas transports to West China is weak, the water vapor divergence and downward motion are strong, such environment is in favor of rainfall suppression.

Key words: Madden-Julia Oscillation (MJO)    Autumn rainfall in West China    Circulation feature    Water vapor transportation    Vertical motion
收稿日期: 2015-04-22 出版日期: 2016-12-20
:  P461  
基金资助:

国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306022);国家自然科学基金项目(41275097)

作者简介: 赵佳玉(1990-),女,黑龙江人,硕士研究生,主要从事短期气候预测研究.E-mail:zhaojy_aselly@163.com
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引用本文:

赵佳玉, 马振峰, 范广洲. 热带大气季节内振荡对华西秋雨的影响[J]. 高原气象, 2016, 35(6): 1487-1497.

ZHAO Jiayu, MA Zhenfeng, FAN Guangzhou. Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Autumn Rainfall in West China. PLATEAU METEOROLOGY, 2016, 35(6): 1487-1497.

链接本文:

http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00089        http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/Y2016/V35/I6/1487

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