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高原气象  2017, Vol. 36 Issue (6): 1567-1575    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00005
论文     
上海地区短历时强降水致灾阈值探索
贺芳芳, 杨涵洧, 穆海振, 徐卫忠, 徐家良
上海市气候中心, 上海 200030
The Exploratory Research of Thresholds Value Causing Urban Waterlogging of Short Diachronic Strong Precipitation in Shanghai
HE Fangfang, YANG Hanwei, MU Haizhen, XU Weizhong, XU Jialiang
Shanghai climate Center, shanghai 200030, china
 全文: PDF(8562 KB)  
摘要: 采用SCS-CN模型,通过对城市降雨径流过程的模拟,结合上海地区径流曲线系数和排水能力分布,以淹没5 cm深度作为致涝阈值,反演上海市短历时强降水1 h致灾临界面雨量,接着选取4个110积水报警较多和造成灾害较重短历时强降水典型个例,根据4个典型强降水过程逐时雨量与报警点的空间分布及逐时最大雨量与积水报警数的关系,验证分析上海地区短历时强降水引起积水灾害时的小时雨量。综合反演计算结果和验证分析,确定上海地区短历时强降水致灾阈值:当雨量达30~40 mm·h-1,在上海市区和郊区大部分地区,就会出现淹没灾情和积水报警;当雨量大于等于50 mm·h-1,淹没区域增加到郊区一些新建城镇灾情加重,积水报警也明显增多;当雨量大于等于70 mm·h-1,上海市各个地区都有可能出现淹没现象灾情严重,全市都会出现积水报警且密集出现。短历时强降水致灾阈值的研究结果可为上海城市制定有效预防强降水积水淹涝灾害措施提供可靠的科学依据。
关键词: 上海110积水报警信息短历时强降水SCS-CN模型致灾阈值    
Abstract: The hourly critical rainfall of short diachronic strong precipitation for urban waterlogging was calculated by inverse operation of SCS-CN model, which could simulate the runoff process of city rainfall combining with the runoff curve number and drainage ability in Shanghai. In the simulation, the downtown of Shanghai was divided to 284 drain units; the suburb was divided to 114 drain units. Also, the submergence depth of 5 cm was set as a critical value to judge whether the rainfall caused urban waterlogging. For a certain unit, when it appears strong rainfall in an hour, one certain point in the unit is submerged, and its depth is 5 cm, this precipitation is called the critical value causing urban waterlogging for this unit. Based on the conservation of water volume, this precipitation could be calculated by inverse operation of SCS-CN model. Besides, four typical examples of short diachronic strong precipitation was chosen, which led to serious disaster with more 110 urban waterlogging alarms. According to the relationship between hourly precipitation and 110 urban waterlogging alarms of four typical example, the result calculated by SCS-CN model could be verified. The results of inversion calculation of SCS-CN model and verification of four typical examples indicated that it may appear the waterlogging area and 110 alarms in downtown and most parts of suburb when the hourly rainfall is 30~40 mm·h-1 (appearing disasters). The waterlogging area will expand to new-built town of suburb and 110 alarms will increase obviously when the rainfall is more than or equal to 50 mm·h-1 (worse disasters). The waterlogging area will also appear in regions which are in higher ground of downtown and with stronger drainage ability in new-built town near the downtown, the 110 alarm was intensive and waterlogging area will appear in any regions of Shanghai when the rainfall is more than or equal to 70 mm·h-1 (appearing heavy disasters). Rainstorm is the main meteorological disaster of Shanghai in summer half year. Rainstorm of Shanghai had turned to strong, local, extremely short-time change trend and the short diachronic strong precipitation had been one of the most destructive meteorological disasters from May to September of Shanghai since 1995, it was an important reason of water disasters and the serious water disasters was caused by it in Shanghai. Thus, research fruit on the critical value of short diachronic strong precipitation causing urban waterlogging could provide reliable scientific basis to draw up measure for effective prevention of urban waterlogging in Shanghai but the research reports with respect to the critical value of short diachronic strong precipitation were less.
Key words: 110 waterlogging alarm in Shanghai    short diachronic strong precipitation    SCS-CN model    critical precipitation causing urban waterlogging
收稿日期: 2016-07-08 出版日期: 2017-12-20
ZTFLH:  P426.616  
基金资助: 公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506014)
作者简介: 贺芳芳(1963),女,江苏无锡人,正研级高工,主要从事气候影响评估分析与研究.E-mail:heff@climate.sh.cn
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引用本文:

贺芳芳, 杨涵洧, 穆海振, 徐卫忠, 徐家良. 上海地区短历时强降水致灾阈值探索[J]. 高原气象, 2017, 36(6): 1567-1575.

HE Fangfang, YANG Hanwei, MU Haizhen, XU Weizhong, XU Jialiang. The Exploratory Research of Thresholds Value Causing Urban Waterlogging of Short Diachronic Strong Precipitation in Shanghai. PLATEAU METEOROLOGY, 2017, 36(6): 1567-1575.

链接本文:

http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00005        http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/Y2017/V36/I6/1567

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