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高原气象  2018, Vol. 37 Issue (3): 734-746    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00085
论文     
青藏高原东侧不同云类对气温变化影响的初步分析
张琪1,2, 李跃清1, 任景轩3
1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 四川 成都 610072;
2. 四川省气象台, 四川 成都 610071;
3. 中国人民解放军78127部队, 四川 成都 610011
Preliminary Analysis on the Influence of Cloud Amount and Temperature over East Side of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau
ZHANG Qi1,2, LI Yueqing1, REN Jingxuan3
1. Institute of plateau meteorology, CMA/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, Sichuan, China;
2. Meteorological Observatory in Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610071, Sichuan, China;
3. Chinese People's Liberation Army 78127 Unit, Chengdu 610011, Sichuan, China
 全文: PDF 
摘要: 利用1984-2009年青藏高原东侧的地面气温和ISCCP D2云资料,对不同云类与气温的关系及影响进行了SVD、对比和合成分析。结果表明,20世纪80年代是近50年来川渝盆地最冷的10年,90年代中期是川渝盆地由偏冷向偏暖变化的一个重要转折期,且川渝盆地变暖滞后全国主要是由春季和秋季气温异常造成,其中盆地西部是显著异常区。雨层云、卷云、深对流云与气温均存在显著关系,且与气温关系和影响程度均不同;其中,雨层云、深对流云产生“温室效应”与气温存在正相关关系,卷云反射太阳短波辐射与气温呈负相关关系;由于雨层云、深对流云产生降水削弱增温效果,不及卷云与气温的关系突出。另外,雨层云、卷云、深对流云3者之间存在显著相关关系,且卷云与雨层云、深对流云均存在负相关关系,雨层云与深对流云之间呈正相关关系;3者间卷云与雨层云的负相关最为显著。鉴于这3种云类共同影响气温且与气温相关较显著,建立多云回归模型,并通过了显著性检验,对川渝盆地的气候变化预报起到一定的指导作用。
关键词: 雨层云卷云深对流云气温    
Abstract: Based on the meteorological monthly mean temperature data and ISCCP D2 data, using the SVD, statistical analysis and synthetic analysis methods, the relationship and influence of cloud amount and temperature were analyzed over east side of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The research results show that the 1980s were the coldest decade in the Sichuan and Chongqing basin in the last half century, and the mid-90s were an important turning point in the change of the Sichuan and Chongqing basin from cold to warm. The lag of warming is mainly caused by the abnormal temperature of spring and autumn, and the west of the basin is a notable anomaly. The nimbostratus、cirrus and deep convective cloud are positively correlated with temperature, and the degree of influence and relationship are different. Nimbostratus and deep convective cloud has positive correlation with the temperature of "greenhouse effect", the cirrus that reflected solar short wave radiation is negatively related to the temperature. Because nimbostratus、deep convective cloud produce precipitation and weaken the warming effect, so the relationship between cirrus and temperature is better. There is a significant correlation between the nimbostratus, cirrus and deep convective cloud. The correlation coefficient between cirrus and nimbostratus, deep convective cloud is negative, but the nimbostratus is positively correlated with cirrus. The correlation coefficient between cirrus and nimbostratus is the bigger among those correlation coefficients. In view of the fact that the three clouds affect the temperature together and have significantly correlation with it, we built a cloudy regression model that has passed the significance test.
Key words: Nimbostratus    cirrus    deep convective cloud    temperature
收稿日期: 2017-07-15 出版日期: 2018-06-24
ZTFLH:  P423  
基金资助: 四川省应用基础研究计划重点项目(2016JY0046);公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费重大项目(GYHY201406001);国家自然科学基金重点项目(91337215)
作者简介: 张琪(1985),女,山东菏泽人,工程师,主要从事高原天气、气候研究.E-mail:zhangqikm@126.com
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引用本文:

张琪, 李跃清, 任景轩. 青藏高原东侧不同云类对气温变化影响的初步分析[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(3): 734-746.

ZHANG Qi, LI Yueqing, REN Jingxuan. Preliminary Analysis on the Influence of Cloud Amount and Temperature over East Side of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Plateau Meteorology, 2018, 37(3): 734-746.

链接本文:

http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00085        http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V37/I3/734

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