首先总结和分析了气象站观测的2012年1月北京地区主要天气过程和月平均物理量分布特征，然后利用中尺度天气预报模式WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting Model），通过个例模拟平均和平均场模拟两种方法分别模拟了1月北京新、旧城市土地利用状况下月平均2 m温度、2 m比湿和10 m风速；将模拟结果与观测结果验证之后，对比分析了两种模拟方法反映城市发展对冬季月平均气象要素的影响特征。结果表明，两种模拟方法均具有较好的模拟效果，对城区月平均2 m温度、比湿的模拟命中率在70%以上，10 m风速超过60%，且二者对研究区月平均物理量的模拟在空间分布特征和日变化规律是一致的，平均场对2 m气温的模拟效果好于对湿度和风速的模拟；城市下垫面发展对北京地区冬季月平均气象条件影响显著，两种方法在模拟城市发展对月平均气象条件影响方面有较好的一致性，个例模拟平均方法能得到极端影响状况，平均场模拟方法局限性在于无法得到极端影响状况和降水模拟。
This paper focuses on two different methods for simulating the impact of urban surface development on monthly averaged meteorological elements in Beijing winter. After analyzing the major weather process and distribution characteristics of month mean meteorological elements in Beijing in January 2012, using WRF/BEP modeling system, the month mean 10 m wind speed, 2 m air temperature and 2 m humidity were simulated by the cases-averaged method and the mean-field method. Then the results of two methods under new and old land use conditions are evaluated against the observation. At last, the analysis of affect caused by urban development and the comparison of two different methods for reflecting this affect are carried out. The results show that: Both methods have good simulation results. Hite rate of air temperature and specific humidity is higher than 70% and the wind speed is more than 60%. The spatial distribution of the characteristics of month-averaged meteorological elements and diurnal variation simulated by two methods are consistent. Urbanization slightly decreases the specific humidity and wind speed in Beijing but increases the air temperature. And the impact of urbanization simulated by two approaches also have the same trend. The cases-averaged method not only reflects the average impact of urban development but also gets the extreme impact of a month. The mean-field method may not get the extreme impact conditions and precipitation simulation.
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