全球陆地干旱的时空变化特征及其未来变化趋势分析
网络出版日期: 2025-02-24
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(42371386);甘肃省杰出青年基金项目(22JR5RA046);中国科学院青年创新促进会会员项目(2020422)
Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Global Terrestrial Droughts and Analysis of their Future Trends
Online published: 2025-02-24
干旱作为全球气候灾害中的重要因素之一,不仅对全球生态系统的稳定性和生物多样性构成了严重威胁,还对社会经济发展产生了深远的影响。特别是在全球气候变化的背景下,干旱的发生频率和强度也在不断变化。一些生态脆弱地区发生的干旱事件不仅威胁着水资源的供应,还增加了粮食安全、生态退化和社会冲突的风险。然而,尽管这一领域的研究日益增多,但过去四十年来干旱发生的时空变化特征及其在未来不同气候情景下的演变趋势仍存在着诸多未知与不确定性。本研究基于标准化降水蒸散指数 SPEI(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)和 CMIP6气候变化情景数据,旨在系统分析全球干旱在过去四十年间的时空演变特征,并预测在未来八十年内,全球干旱在不同气候情景下(SSP1-2. 6、SSP2-4. 5、SSP5-8. 5)以及不同地理条件下的变化趋势。研究结果表明:(1)在 1980-2022年期间,全球干旱的时空变化特征表现出显著的区域差异。在全球范围内,约57%的陆地未显示出显著的干旱趋势,但约33%的陆地面积出现了持续的干旱化趋势,干旱强度有所增加。相反,仅10%的区域趋向于更加湿润,可见全球逐渐干旱的区域明显大于逐渐湿润的区域,这表明干旱化进程正在全球范围内蔓延;(2)在过去四十年里,全球范围内正经历着无明显季节性差别的干旱趋势,相较而言,冬季的干旱区域不断扩大,占全球陆地面积的 33. 2%;(3)不同植被覆盖类型对干旱的响应中,稀疏植被覆盖区域更易受到干旱的影响,而植被茂密的区域则倾向于湿润状态。此外,不同气候类型中的干旱气候区则面临更为严峻的干旱挑战。在不同干湿区类型中,极端干旱区的严重干旱面积在全球陆地面积占比最大,最高可达 67%,表明旱地中干旱事件的发生频率更高;(4)在未来三种不同的气候变化情景下,非洲、南美洲、亚洲东南部以及北美洲南部等地区的干旱事件发生概率显著增加,特别是在热带或常暖型气候区、极端干旱区以及常绿阔叶林区域,干旱将变得更加频繁和严峻。预计在未来八十年内,SSP5-8. 5情景下发生干旱事件的可能性最大,强度最高,即将面更加频繁且严重的干旱挑战。本研究的发现强调了全球干旱化趋势的广泛性和严重性,特别是在气候变化的背景下,干旱的频率和强度预计将大幅增加。这一趋势不仅加深了我们对干旱风险的认识,还为政策制定者、水资源管理者以及社会各界提供了重要的参考依据。为了应对未来可能加剧的干旱问题,社会各界需要采取更加积极有效的措施,推动适应和缓解干旱带来的挑战。加强水资源的合理管理,改进农业灌溉技术,提高生态系统恢复能力,以及加强气候变化与干旱的监测与预警,从而保障全球生态安全、促进社会经济可持续发展。
关键词:
全球干旱; SPEI; 时空变化; Mann-Kendall检验; CMIP6
徐欣瑶, 王旭峰, 张松林, 杨彦鹏, 李宗省 . 全球陆地干旱的时空变化特征及其未来变化趋势分析[J]. 高原气象, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10. 7522/j. issn. 1000- 0534. 2024. 00109
Drought represents a significant contributing factor to global climate-related disasters. It not only endangers the stability of global ecosystems and biodiversity but also has far-reaching implications for socio-eco‐ nomic development. As global climate change intensifies,so too does the frequency and intensity of droughts. Drought events in ecologically fragile regions not only threaten the availability of water resources but also in‐ crease the risk of food insecurity,ecological degradation and social conflict. Nevertheless,despite the growing body of research in this area,there remain significant gaps in our understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought occurrences over the past four decades,as well as its evolutionary trends under different cli‐ mate scenarios in the future. This study employs the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) and CMIP6 climate change scenarios to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of global droughts over the past four decades and to predict the evolution of global droughts under different climate scenarios(SSP1- 2. 6、SSP2-4. 5、SSP5-8. 5)over the next 80 years. The findings of the study indicate that:(1)During the peri‐ od between 1980 and 2022,there were notable variations in the spatial and temporal characteristics of global drought across different regions. Globally,approximately 57% of the land area does not exhibit a significant drought trend. However,about 33% of the land shows a persistent aridification trend,particularly in some al‐ ready arid regions,where the intensity of drought has increased. Conversely,only 10% of the area is becoming wetter,indicating that the regions of the globe that are becoming drier are significantly larger than those that are becoming wetter. This suggests that the aridification process is spreading globally;(2)Over the past four de‐ cades,the globe has experienced an arid trend with no significant seasonal differences. However,the arid regions in winter are expanding,accounting for 33. 2% of the global land area;(3)Different vegetation cover types exhibit varying responses to drought. Sparsely vegetated areas are more susceptible to drought,while densely vegetated areas tend to be wetter. Furthermore,arid climate zones situated within diverse climatic contexts are confronted with more pronounced drought-related challenges. The largest proportion of severe drought is observed in extreme arid zones,which account for up to 67% of the global land area,this indicates a higher frequency of drought events in drylands;(4)The probability of drought events is predicted to increase significantly in Africa,South America,southeastern Asia,and southern North America,particularly in tropical or warm climatic zones,extreme arid zones,and evergreen broadleaf climate zones. Furthermore,droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe,especially in tropical or very warm climate zones,arid zones,and broadleaf evergreen forest regions. The SSP5-8. 5 scenario is projected to have the highest probability and intensity of drought events over the next 80 years,and will be challenged by more frequent and severe droughts. The findings of this study underscore the pervasive and severe nature of the global aridification trend,particularly in the context of climate change,where the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase significantly. This trend not only enhances our comprehension of the risk of drought,but also furnishes an essential point of reference for policymakers,water managers,and the general public. In order to mitigate the potential intensification of droughts in the future,it is imperative that all sectors of society implement more proactive and efficacious measures to promote adaptation and mitigate the challenges posed by droughts. The rational management of water resources,improvements in agricultural irrigation techniques,enhanced ecosystem resilience and the strengthening of monitoring and early warning systems for climate change and droughts will ensure global eco‐ logical security and facilitate sustainable socio-economic development.
Key words:
global drought; SPEI; spatiotemporal changes; Mann-Kendall test; CMIP6
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