川西北生态示范区及周边地区极端气温指数时空变化分布特征
网络出版日期: 2025-04-11
基金资助
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJYJXMS202210);干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM202004);四川省自然科学基金项目(2022NSFSC0208);甘肃省自然科学基金重点项目(21JR7RA694)
Characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of extreme temperature indices in the ecological demonstration area and surrounding areas of Northwest Sichuan province
Online published: 2025-04-11
利用 1961-2022 年川西北生态示范区以及其周边地区共 70 个地面常规观测站的逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温资料,采用气候倾向率、经验正交分解(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)分析法、Morlet复小波方法,分析川西北及周边地区极端气温指数的时空变化特征,结果表明:(1)研究区内极端气温暖指数和极值指数呈增加趋势,极端气温冷指数呈减少趋势,气温日较差(Diurnal TemperatureRange,DTR)变化不明显;暖、冷指数变化幅度相近,夜指数变化速率大于昼指数,周边地区的极端气温指数变化相较于川西北地区更加显著。(2)川西北地区极端气温指数在 2~30年内有 2~3个主周期;周边地区在 2~20年内有 2~3个主周期;川西北地区多数指数的周期突变于 2000年左右,短中周期交替频率升高,周边地区的 FD0(Frost Days,霜冻指数)、TN10P(Cold Nights,冷夜日数)、TX10P(Cold Days,冷昼日数)、CSDI(Cold Spell Duration,冷持续日数)的周期突变于 1990 年左右,短中周期交替频率下降;川西北地区的极端气温指数周期变化相较于周边地区具有滞后性。(3)TNx(Max TN,日最低气温极大值)、TXx(Max TX,日最高气温极大值)、TR20(Tropical Nights,热夜日数)于研究区北部呈增长趋势;TXn(Min TX,日最高气温极小值)于川西北东部以及周边地区呈增长趋势;ID0(Ice Days,冰冻指数)、TN10P 全域减小;FD0 于川西北地区减小、周边地区增加;TNn(Min TN,日最低气温极小值)、TN90P(Warm Nights,暖夜日数)、DTR 于川西北西北部减少、周边地区增加;CSDI、SU25(SummerDays,夏季指数)于研究区内东增西减,暖持续日数(Warm Spell Duration,WSDI)与之相反。(4)研究区内极端气温冷指数主要呈减少趋势,极值指数变化较小,其余指数主要呈增加趋势;总体呈现增温趋势,研究区内的指数变化对全球气候变暖有较好的响应,其中周边地区的变化更为显著。
徐新妍, 袁淑杰, 刘芷含, 苏丽欣, 高枞亭 . 川西北生态示范区及周边地区极端气温指数时空变化分布特征 [J]. 高原气象, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00020
Using the day-by-day average temperature,maximum temperature,and minimum temperature data from a total of 70 ground-based conventional observatories in the Northwest Sichuan Ecological Demonstration Area as well as its peripheral areas from 1961 to 2022,and adopting the climatic propensity rate,EOF(Empirical Orthogonal Function)analysis method,and Morlet complex wavelet method,we analyzed the temporal and spatial change characteristics of the extreme temperature indices in the Northwest Sichuan and its peripheral areas,and the results show that:(1)The extreme temperature warm indices and extreme value indices in the study area show an increasing trend,the extreme temperature cold indices show a decreasing trend,and the DTR(Diurnal Temperature Range)change is not obvious;the warm and cold indices have similar magnitude of change, the rate of change of the night indices is greater than that of the day indices,and the climate change of the extreme temperature indices of the neighboring areas is more significant compared to that of Northwest Sichuan. (2)Extreme temperature indices in Northwest Sichuan have 2~3 main cycles in 2~30 years;neighboring areas have 2~3 main cycles in 2~20 years. Most of the indices in Northwest Sichuan have a sudden change of cycle around 2000,and the frequency of alternation between short and medium cycles is increasing. The cycles of FD0 (Frost Days),TN10P(Cold Nights),TX10P(Cold Days),and CSDI(Cold Spell Duration)in the neighboring regions changed abruptly around 1990,and the frequency of short- and medium-cycle alternation decreased;the cycle changes of the extreme temperature indices in Northwest Sichuan have lagged compared with those in the neighboring regions.(3)TNx(Max TN),TXx(Max TX),and TR20(Tropical Nights )show an increasing trend in the northern part of the study area;TXn(Min TX)shows an increasing trend in the eastern part of NW Sichuan as well as in the neighboring areas;ID0(Ice Days)and TN10P decrease over the whole area;FD0 de‐ creases in NW Sichuan and increases in the neighboring areas;TNn(Min TN),TN90P(Warm Nights),and DTR decrease in NW Sichuan and increase in the neighboring areas;CSDI and SU25(Summer Days)increase in the east and decrease in the west,and WSDI(Warm Spell Duration)is the opposite. CSDI and SU25 increased in the east and decreased in the west in the study area,while WSDI was the opposite.(4)In the study area,the extreme temperature cold indices mainly show a decreasing trend,the extreme value indices change less,and the rest of the indices mainly show an increasing trend;the overall warming trend is shown,and the indices change in the study area respond well to the global warming,with the peripheral areas showing more significant changes.
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