Experiment of Surface-Layer Wind Forecast Improvement by Assimilating Conventional Data with WRF-3DVAR

ZHANG Feimin;WANG Chenghai

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Plateau Meteorology
Plateau Meteorology ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3) : 675-685. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00198

Experiment of Surface-Layer Wind Forecast Improvement by Assimilating Conventional Data with WRF-3DVAR

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Abstract

Using WR-F3DVAR assimilation system, add the perturbations with the method advanced by Evenson at initial time to generate disturbance type initial fields and assimilate conventional observation data (including radiosonde observation and conventional ground observation), comparing the improvement effects of the whole atmosphere for initial and forecast fields with WR-F3DVAR system, the forecast effects of the local atmosphere for near-surface wind was also verified. The results show that: Compared to the GFS forecast directly, assimilation of conventional data improves initial fields, especially for wind and temperature fields in lower layer compared with the initial fields produced by FNL data; The initial fields produced by FNL data and assimilation of conventional data have the different valid forecast time at different pressure levels, the forecast effects of wind and temperature are improved within 36 h at lower pressure level (1000 hPa), on 500 hPa and 200 hPa, the valid forecast time of wind and temperature is 36 h and 12 h respectively; No matter FNL data or assimilation of conventional data, the forecast improvements of near-surface layer wind are only within 36 h, this implies that the forecasting effects of variables as wind, which changes greatly in short time, may improve remarkably if assimilating data that close to variables itself in spatial and temporal.

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Near-surface wind / WR-F3DVAR / Conventional observa

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ZHANG Feimin , WANG Chenghai. Experiment of Surface-Layer Wind Forecast Improvement by Assimilating Conventional Data with WRF-3DVAR. Plateau Meteorology. 2014, 33(3): 675-685 https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00198

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