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  2015, Vol. 34 Issue (2): 463-469    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00167
    
Preliminary Study on Solar Radiation Forecasting with WRF Model
HE Xiaofeng1, ZHOU Rongwei1, SHEN Yanbo1, SHI Lei2
1. Public Weather Service Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
2. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited Guohua Power Branch, Beijing 100025, China
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Abstract  Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model was used in experimental forecast of hourly solar radiation in four typical months in Beijing area. The solar radiation observational data of Nanjiao weather observatory were used to evaluate and correct the forecasting result. Conclusions were as follows: the forecasting result of solar radiation with 5 km horizontal resolution was very similar to that with 1 km horizontal resolution in condition of the existing model. The forecast effect of solar radiation in sunny days was the best with WRF model, the secondary was in cloudy days, and the worst was in fully cloudy days or rainy days. Through analysis of error decomposition, the contribution of phase bias, system bias and amplitude bias was different obviously in each month. The ordinary linear correction method was useful to remove most of system bias and amplitude bias obviously, and in general, the correcting effect of double bias correction method was slightly better than that by linear regression method. The phase bias was difficult to eliminate only by ordinary linear correction method, so a new correction method should be adopted.
Key words:  WRF model      Solar radiation      Error decomposition      Linear correction     
Received:  31 December 2012      Published:  24 April 2015
P422.1  

Cite this article: 

HE Xiaofeng, ZHOU Rongwei, SHEN Yanbo, SHI Lei. Preliminary Study on Solar Radiation Forecasting with WRF Model. , 2015, 34(2): 463-469.

URL: 

http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/EN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00167     OR     http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/EN/Y2015/V34/I2/463

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