Statistical Forecast Model of Western Pacific Subtropical High Indices in Summer

JIA Yajun;HU Yijia;ZHONG Zhong;ZHU Yimin

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Plateau Meteorology
Plateau Meteorology ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (5) : 1369-1378. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00079

Statistical Forecast Model of Western Pacific Subtropical High Indices in Summer

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Abstract

By using the 74 circulation indices provided by National climate center, the Niño 3 indices and other climate indices provided by NOAA climate forecast center, a physical and statistical forecast model is established to predict the western pacific subtropical high (WPSH) indices in summer.The correlation analysis and the optimal subset regression are used to choose the predictors.The predictand is the year-to-year increment of the WPSH indices in summer.Then the real indices can be calculated.The hindcast of WPSH indices during 2001-2013 is carried out to evaluate the performance of this forecast model.The results show that the forecast model can predict the ridge line, the western ridge point, and the intensity indices of the WPSH successfully in most years.The anomaly correlation coefficients between the observed ridge line, the western ridge point and the intensity indices and the prediction during 2001-2013 are 0.64, 0.67 and 0.78, respectively.The accuracy rate of the predicted ridge line, the western ridge point and the intensity indices during these 13 years reach up to 84.63%, 76.92% and 69.23%.Therefore, this forecast model will be of great value in the climate prediction during the flood season.

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Western pacific subt / Optimal subset / Year-to-year increme / Statistical predicti

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JIA Yajun , HU Yijia , ZHONG Zhong , ZHU Yimin. Statistical Forecast Model of Western Pacific Subtropical High Indices in Summer. Plateau Meteorology. 2015, 34(5): 1369-1378 https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00079

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