Circulation Pattern for Summer Precipitation in Northeast China and Application of Dynamical Climate Model Information

DING Ting;CHEN Lijuan

PDF(6775 KB)
Plateau Meteorology
Plateau Meteorology ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4) : 1119-1130. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00101

Circulation Pattern for Summer Precipitation in Northeast China and Application of Dynamical Climate Model Information

Author information +
History +

Abstract

Based on 91 station monthly data, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data and monthly dynamic extended range forecast 2.0 (BCC_DERF2.0) products from National Climate Center for 1991-2010, the circulation patterns for summer precipitation in Northeast China in each month are analyzed, the prediction skills of precipitation and main circulation systems by BCC_DERF2.0 are tested, and the precipitation prediction regression models are established. Precipitation in June is mainly influenced by Northeast cold vortex and Okhotsk blocking high, while in July mainly by western Pacific subtropical high, and in August by western Pacific subtropical high and Northeast cold vortex. On the analysis of model validation, BCC_DERF2.0 outputs are found to provide skillful predictions for precipitation in a few sites in Northeast China, and can predict the southerly wind in June, western Pacific subtropical high in July and August and Northeast cold vortex in August well. On the basis of validation for DERF2.0 model products, high-skilled prediction information of key circulation regions for precipitation anomalies in Northeast China is selected, and linear regression models are established. The cross-validation for precipitation regression model for August shows good prediction skill, and the correlation between observation and hindcasts is significant. By comparison, the raw BCC_DERF2.0 precipitation outputs for 1991-2010 in each month show better prediction skills than the operational prediction from National Climate Center in the same period, while the prediction skills for cross-validation of the prediction regression models are better than the raw BCC_DERF2.0 precipitation outputs in the corresponding month. The precipitation prediction by high-skilled circulation information from BCC_DERF2.0 10 days ahead of forecast time can improve the prediction ability for summer monthly precipitation in Northeast China.

Key words

Summer precipitation / Climate model / Linear regression / Interpretation and a

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations
DING Ting , CHEN Lijuan. Circulation Pattern for Summer Precipitation in Northeast China and Application of Dynamical Climate Model Information. Plateau Meteorology. 2015, 34(4): 1119-1130 https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00101

References

[1]左洪超,吕世华,胡隐樵. 中国近50年气温及降水量的变化趋势[J]. 高原气象,2004,23(2):228-244.
[2]李邦东,周旭,赵中军,等. 近50年中国东北地区不同类型和等级降水时间变化特征[J]. 高原气象,2013,32(5):1414-1423,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000:0534. 2012. 00114.
[3]孙凤华,李丽光,张耀存. 影响中国东北地区气候的关键区、关键时段和关键因子[J]. 地理科学,2011,31(8):911-916.
[4]梁军,张胜军,石小龙,等. 2010年8月8-10日辽东半岛暴雨过程的中尺度特征分析[J]. 高原气象,2012,31(5):1320-1331.
[5]钟水新,王东海,张人禾,等. 一次冷涡发展阶段大暴雨过程的中尺度对流系统研究[J]. 高原气象,2013,32(2):951-960,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00042.
[6]俞亚逊,王式功,钱正安,等. 夏半年西太副高位置与东亚季风雨带(区)的气候联系[J]. 高原气象,2013,32(5):1510-1525,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00033.
[7]武炳义,张人禾,Rosanne D A. 北极偶极子异常与中国东北夏季降水[J]. 科学通报,2008,52(12):1422-1428.
[8]Shen B Z, Lin Z D, Lu R Y, et al. Circulation anomalies associated with interannual variation of early- and late-summer precipitation in Northeast China[J]. Sci China (Earth Sci), 2011,54(7):1095-1104.
[9]廉毅,沈柏竹,高枞亭,等. 东亚夏季风在中国东北区建立的标准、日期及其主要特征分析[J]. 气象学报,2003,61(5):548-558.
[10]俞亚逊,王式功,钱正安,等. 夏半年西太副高位置与东亚季风雨带(区)的气候联系[J]. 高原气象,2013,32(5):1510-1525,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00033.
[11]孙力,安刚,唐晓玲. 东北亚地区夏季850 hPa南风异常与东北旱涝的关系[J]. 大气科学,2003,27(3):425-434.
[12]何金海,吴志伟,祁莉,等. 北半球环状模和东北冷涡与我国东北夏季降水关系分析[J]. 气象与环境学报,2006,22(1):1-5.
[13]池艳珍,刘丹妮,何金海,等. 东亚-太平洋地区环流场和热力场由冬向夏转换的过程特征及其可能机制[J]. 高原气象,2013,32(4):989-992,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00095.
[14]Wu B Y,Zhang R H,Wang B,et al. On the association between spring Arctic sea ice concentrationand Chinese summer rainfall[J]. Geophys Res Lett,2009,36(9):666-678,doi:10.1029/2009GL037299.
[15]陈丽娟,张培群,赵振国. 松嫩辽流域夏季面雨量预测因子探讨[J]. 应用气象学报,2005,16(5):663-669.
[16]李维京,张培群,李清泉,等. 动力气候模式预测系统业务化及其应用[J]. 应用气象学报,2005,16(增刊1):1-11.
[17]Wu T W,Yu R C,Zhang F. A modified dynamic framework foratmospheric spectral model and its application[J]. J Atmos Sci,2008,65(7):2235-2253.
[18]Wu T W,Yu R C,Zhang F,et al. The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model:description and its performance for the present:Day climate[J]. Climate Dyn,2010,34(1):123-147.
[19]Zhang L,Dong M,Wu T W. Changes in precipitation extremes over Eastern China simulated by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC_CSM1.0)[J]. Climate Research,2011,50(2-3):227-245.
[20]董敏,吴统文,王在志,等.BCC_CSM1.0模式对20世纪降水及其变率的模拟[J].应用气象学报,2013,24(1):1-11.
[21]吴统文,宋连春,李伟平,等. 北京气候中心气候系统模式研发进展-在气候变化研究中的应用[J]. 气象学报,2014,72(1):12-29.
[22]吴统文,宋连春,刘向文,等. 国家气候中心第二代短期气候预测模式系统业务化进展[J]. 应用气象学报,2013,24(5):533-543.
[23]Wang B,Lee J Y,Kang I S,et al. Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction:assessmentof the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonalprediction(1980-2004)[J]. Climate Dyn,2009,33(1):93-117.
[24]中国气象局. 地面气象观测规范[M]. 北京:气象出版社,2003.
[25]Kalney E,Kanamitsu M,Kistler R,et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,1996,77(3):437-471.
[26]Kistler R,Kalnay E,Collins W,et al. The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis:monthly means CD-ROM and documentation[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc,2001,82(2):247-267.
[27]丁婷,陈丽娟,崔大海. 东北夏季降水的年代际特征及环流变化[J]. 高原气象,2015,34(1):220-229,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00155.
[28]魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:296.
[29]Michaelsen J. Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models[J]. J Climate Appl Meteor,1987,26(11):1589-1600.
[30]张杰,钱维宏,丁婷. 东北地区5-9月降水特征和趋势分析[J]. 气象,2010,36(8):1-7.
[31]李栋梁,邵鹏程,王慧,等. 中国东亚副热带夏季风北边缘带研究进展[J]. 高原气象,2013,32(1):305-314,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00030.
[32]孙力,安刚,廉毅,等. 中国东北地区夏季旱涝的大气环流异常特征[J]. 气候与环境研究,2002,7(1):102-113.
[33]孙力,郑秀雅,王琪. 东北冷涡的时空分布特征及其与东亚大型环流系统之间的关系[J]. 应用气象学报,1994,5(3):297-303.
[34]翟颖佳,李耀辉,施春华. 近50年8月华北区降水异常的时空特征及其成因分析[J]. 高原气象,2013,32(3):787-797,doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00073.
[35]任宏利,丑纪范. 动力相似预报的策略和方法研究[J]. 中国科学:地球科学,2007,37(8):1101-1109.
[36]Chou G F. A problem of using past data in numerical weather forecasting[J]. Scientia Sinica,1974,17(6):814-825.
[37]Cheng C L,Tu H Y. A new numerial weather prediction model,utilizing multiple-instant observation data[J]. Scientia Sinica,1973(3):396-406.
[38]邱崇践,丑纪范. 天气预报的相似-动力方法[J]. 大气科学,1989,13(1):22-28.
[39]黄建平,王绍武. 相似-动力模式的季节预报试验[J]. 中国科学(B辑),1991,21(2):216-224.
[40]Huang J P,Wang S W. The experiments of seasonal prediction using the analogy-dynamical model[J]. Science in China (Series B),1992,35(2):207-216.
[41]Huang J P,Yi Y H,Wang S W,et al. An analogue:dynamical long:range numerical weather prediction system incorporating historical evolution[J]. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,1993,119(4):547-565.
[42]曹鸿兴. 大气运动的自忆性方程[J]. 中国科学(B辑),1993,23(1):104-112.
[43]Feng G L,Cao H X,Gao X Q,et al. Prediction of precipitation during summer monsoon with self-memorial model[J]. Ad Atmos Sci,2001,18(5):701-709.
[44]李维京,陈丽娟. 动力延伸预报产品释用方法的研究[J]. 气象学报,1999,57(3):338-345.
[45]Chen D L. A monthly circulation climatology for Sweden and its application to a winter temperature case study[J]. Int J Climatol,2000,20(10):1067-1076.
[46]范丽军,符淙斌,陈德亮. 统计降尺度法对未来区域气候变化情景预估的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展,2005,20(3):320-329.
[47]魏凤英,黄嘉佑. 大气环流降尺度因子在中国东部夏季降水预测中的作用[J]. 大气科学,2010,34(1):202-212.
[48]Gu W Z,Chen L J,Li W J,et al. Prediction of regional summer precipitation in China based on optimal information extracted from coupled general climate model[J]. Acta Meteor Sini,2011,25(3):303-315.
[49]Ding T,Ke Z J. A comparison of statistical approaches for seasonal precipitation prediction in Pakistan[J]. Wea Forecasting,2013,28(5):1116-1132.
[50]赵振国. 中国夏季旱涝及环境场[M]. 北京:气象出版社, 1999:297.
PDF(6775 KB)

1423

Accesses

0

Citation

Detail
Sections
Recommended

The system is designed and developed by Beijing magtec Technology Development Co., Ltd. with technical support: support@magtech.com.cn

/

〈 〉