Study of Systematic Bias Corrected Method in CMIP5 Decadal Experiments of BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model on Tropical SST

GAO Feng;WU Tongwen;XIN Xiaoge

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Plateau Meteorology
Plateau Meteorology ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5) : 1364-1375. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00083

Study of Systematic Bias Corrected Method in CMIP5 Decadal Experiments of BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model on Tropical SST

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Abstract

The decadal prediction component of CMIP5 experiment aims at improving our understanding of physical climate system and ability to predict its evolution in the near term. These decadal simulations make it possible and meaningful to assess model skill in forecasting climate under the observed ocean initial conditions. In this study, the decadal hindcast and prediction experiment carried out by BCC_CSM1.1 climate model for CMIP5 was used to evaluate the model's prediction capability of SST in tropical area. Using a model bias correcting method, we corrected the raw model simulation results and examined whether this method can improve the model's hindcast performance in tropical SST. By analyzing the decadal experiment which is conducted every 5 years from 1960 to 1990, results show as following:in spite of initiation with observation SST was taken into account in the decadal hindcast experiments, the model still underperforms in simulating the realistic SST evolution. The relationship between different groups of the experiments and the observation only show consistent positive correlation in western Pacific and the tropical North Atlantic Ocean area, while hindcast skills of corrected model simulation are improved significantly in the global ocean area, particularly in the southern Indian and tropical Pacific Ocean area. In the tropical western Pacific, the space correlation efficient between corrected model simulation and observation is above 0.8 in all the 120 months after the predicted time. The corrected model simulations can reproduce the mode of the Pacific SST in the observation. Therefore, the bias correcting method in the present study is important and useful for reducing the systematic bias and conducting the climate prediction of tropical SST on time-scales.

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Decadal prediction / Model bias / BCC_CSM1.1 / CMIP5

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GAO Feng , WU Tongwen , XIN Xiaoge. Study of Systematic Bias Corrected Method in CMIP5 Decadal Experiments of BCC_CSM1.1 Climate Model on Tropical SST. Plateau Meteorology. 2016, 35(5): 1364-1375 https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00083

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