Using the snow cover fraction(SNC) output by 8 WCRP CMIP3climate models under SRES A2, A1B and B1 scenarios, the trend of SNC in East Asia in future is analyzed. Results show that SNC is likely to decrease in East Asia continent， where SNC decreases the fastest in spring(MAM), then winter(DJF) and autumn(SON), and the slowest in summer(JJA), under the same scenario. In spring and winter, the SNC decreases faster in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau than in northern East Asia, while in autumn there is little difference between them. As for different scenarios, SRES A2 has the largest decrease trend, then A1B, and B1 has the least trend. The decrease of SNC is mainly caused by the changes of surface air temperature and snowfall, but they have different contributions to SNC trend in different regions and seasons.
Key words
East Asia /
Snow cover fraction /
Climate model
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