Based on objective statistics, using precipitation data collected every 6 h at 2419 stations from 1 April to 31 August 2012, and hourly rainfall data fusion by CMORPH(NOAA Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method)satellites and more than 30 thousand automatic stations, Japan high resolution mode precipitation forecasting abilities in China by every 6 h, 12 h and 24 h segment was tested. The results show that: (1) Rain or shine forecast skill scores gradually increases with segment intervals increasing, torrential rain forecast skill scores have better performance at 12 h segment than others. (2) On station verification, the precipitation frequency of model rain or shine forecasts is higher than observed frequency, while the 6 h, 12 h segment torrential rain forecast is lower than observed frequency. But for 24 h segment, the torrential rain forecast frequency basically agrees with the observed one. By changing threshold values, forecast skill scores can be improved. (3) 6 h fractional precipitation standard deviation rations are <1, so the more probability of moderate rains are forecasted but heavy or light rains appears, but for 24 h, the case is on the contrary. (4) Generally speaking, forecast skill scores are higher in the southeast areas than in the north west areas, but it may rains unexpectedly in coastal areas. (5) Model prediction consists with high resolution satellite and automatic station fusion precipitation products better and the threshold adjustment is limited. (6) The relevance between forecasting and observing is higher in the southeast area than in the northwest area. The model can forecast precipitation more reasonably in coastal areas than the west area.
PAN Liujie
,
ZHANG Hongfang
,
WANG Jianpeng
,
NING Zhiqian
. An Objective Verification of Forecasting Ability of Japan High-Resolution Model Precipitation in China[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2014
, 33(2)
: 483
-494
.
DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00188
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