Impact of the MJO Uncertainty on ENSO Predictability in Terms of the Niño-3 Indices Evolution

  • XU Weixing ,
  • PENG Yuehua ,
  • ZHU Wenchao ,
  • DENG Ming ,
  • YANG Huizhi
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  • Kaiping Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province, Kaiping 529300, China;2. Dalian Naval Academy, Dalian 116018, China;3. Taishan Meteorological Bureau of Guangdong Province, Taishan 529200, China

Received date: 2012-12-27

  Online published: 2014-08-28

Abstract

In order to study the impact of the uncertainties of MJO on ENSO predictability, using Zebiak-Cane model and an parametric stochastic representation intra-seasonal forcing, with the method called conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), the effects of the initial errors and those of the uncertainties caused by stochastic MJO forcing on ENSO predictability are compared from the perspective of evolving Niño-3 indices. The results show that: For Zebaik-Cane model, the uncertainties of MJO have little effect on the maximum prediction error for ENSO events caused by CNOPs; compared with CNOP-type initial error, the model error caused by the uncertainties of MJO leads to less prediction uncertainty of ENSO and its influence over ENSO predictability is not significant. In fact, this result suggests that initial error may be the main error source yielding ENSO prediction uncertainty which could provide a theoretical foundation of data assimilation for ENSO forecast.

Key words: MJO; ENSO; CNOP; Model error

Cite this article

XU Weixing , PENG Yuehua , ZHU Wenchao , DENG Ming , YANG Huizhi . Impact of the MJO Uncertainty on ENSO Predictability in Terms of the Niño-3 Indices Evolution[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2014 , 33(4) : 1002 -1011 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00201

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