A Jianghuai rainstorm in 2003 is simulated by WRF model. Furthermore, some sensitive experiments and ensemble studies are done based on Kain-Fritsch-ETA (KF-ETA) scheme. The results reveal that: The minimum net environment entrainment rate and cumulus radius have notable influence on the weather forecast, mainly reflected in the vertical distribution of all kinds of physical variables and grid-scale rainfall distribution. Because of the sensitivity, the location and the scale of the rainfall forecast have been improved through the ensemble mean experiments generated by KF-ETA scheme, as well as the biases of ‘too dry’ and ‘too moisture’ are improved compared with the single random prediction. Meanwhile, some uncertainties are mainly shown in the region with complicated terrain and the rainfall center.
ZHANG Man
,
MIN Jinzhong
,
QI Youcun
,
YANG Yi
. Ensemble Experiments Research Based on Mass-Fluxed Cumulus Convective Parameterization of KF-ETA[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2014
, 33(5)
: 1323
-1331
.
DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00086
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