Plateau Meteorology

Plateau Meteorology >

2015 , Vol. 34 >Issue 5: 1357 - 1368

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00143

Study on Severe Convective Weather Forecast Method Based on Approach Concept

  • ZENG Mingjian ,
  • ZHANG Bei ,
  • WU Haiying ,
  • WANG Wenlan ,
  • SHEN Yun ,
  • ZHANG Bing ,
  • ZHOU Jialing
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  • Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China;2. Jiangsu Provincial Observatory, Nanjing 210008, China;3. National Meteorological Center of Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Received date: 2014-08-15

  Online published: 2015-10-28

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Abstract

Based on proximity principle,the 2668 strong convective weather processes including regional thunderstorm,gale,hail,tornado and short-term heavy rainfall in Jiangsu province from February to September 2000-2010 were matched up with 56 kinds of convective parameters about thermal,dynamical,energy and vapor,etc.which were calculated by 1°×1° NCEP FNL analysis data.So the eigenvalue of convective parameters of different kinds of strong convective weather in different month as the reference sequence can be yielded by statistics.At the same time,the corresponding convective parameters deduced from 10 km resolution,hourly output of the mesoscale model were regarded as comparison sequence.Then,with the relative deviation fuzzy matrix skill,the weight allocation was conducted on the bias of eigenvalue and climatic value and self-stability of convective parameters in different month.At last,using fuzzy mathematics and gray theory,methods about economics,a series of approaching degree indexes were introduced and constructed from the perspective of the approaching degree among sequences,and acquired better forecasting effects in real-time strong convective weather forecast.

Key words： Severe convection; Approach degree; Forecast method

Cite this article

ZENG Mingjian , ZHANG Bei , WU Haiying , WANG Wenlan , SHEN Yun , ZHANG Bing , ZHOU Jialing . Study on Severe Convective Weather Forecast Method Based on Approach Concept[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2015 , 34(5) : 1357 -1368 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00143

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