By using routine sounding data, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, automatic weather station observation data and T639 numerical model forecast data, a strong convection weather process occurred in Yuxi in 9-10 June 2013 is diagnosed.The results show that this strong convection weather process was caused by the interaction of the warm-wet flow coming from southwest and the cold air from north guided by the northwest flow behind trough, occurred in the north of the middle Yunnan Province.The direct impact systems of this process are shear line in the lower troposphere, surface mesoscale convergence line and the cyclone type convergence center.Convergence of the water vapor from the Bay of Bengal in Yunnan attributes favorable vapour condition to this process.Analysis shows that there is a good corresponding relationship in the mesoscale severe convective cloud band, surface mesoscale convergence system and the discontinuous band of the convective available potential energy (CAPE).The location where the mesoscale convective band generate and develop is essentially consistent with the surface convergence line which formed early.The convective cell is more easily to get strengthened and developed on the large value area of the discontinuous band of CAPE.Thus the comprehensive analysis of surface flow field and high-resolution distribution of CAPE have a certain indicative significance to the short-term weather forecast of the severe convective weather.
[1]王小明, 谢静芳, 王侠飞.强对流天气的分析及短时预报[M].北京: 气象出版社, 1992: 28-29.
[2]程麟生, 冯伍虎.中纬度中尺度对流系统研究的若干进展[J].高原气象, 2002, 21(4): 337-347.
[3]段旭, 李英, 许美玲, 等.低纬高原地区中尺度天气分析与预报[M].北京: 气象出版社, 2004: 7-11.
[4]许美玲, 尹丽云, 金少华, 等.云南突发性特大暴雨过程成因分析[J].高原气象, 2013, 32(4): 1062-1073, doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00085.
[5]薛斌, 杨庆元, 王继红, 等.一次中气旋强对流天气过程的分析[J].云南地理环境研究, 2011, 23(增刊1): 23-26.
[6]张腾飞, 段旭, 鲁亚斌, 等.云南一次强对流冰雹过程的环流及雷达回波特征分析[J].高原气象, 2006, 25(3): 531-538.
[7]王位泰, 李照荣, 徐启运, 等.一次低涡强暴雨的雷达回波特征[J].气象科技, 2009, 37(5): 533-537.
[8]居丽玲, 牛生杰, 陈连友.一次致灾雷暴过程的闪电雷达回波特征分析[J].气象科技, 2011, 39(4): 429-437.
[9]潘留杰, 张宏芳, 王楠, 等.陕西一次强对流天气过程的中尺度及雷达观测分析[J].高原气象, 2013, 32(1): 278-289, doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00027.
[10]尹丽云, 张腾飞, 许迎杰, 等.低纬高原中部一次强对流天气过程的多普勒雷达和闪电特征分析[J].高原气象, 2010, 29(4): 1026-1035.
[11]尤红, 肖子牛, 曹中和, 等.“2.28”云南罕见春季强对流雷达回波特征分析与数值模拟[J].高原气象, 2010, 29(5): 1270-1279.
[12]张腾飞, 段旭, 张杰, 等.云南强对流暴雨的闪电和雷达回波特征及相关性[J].热带气象学报, 2011, 27(3): 379-386.
[13]陈英英, 唐仁茂, 李德俊, 等.利用雷达和卫星资料对一次强对流天气过程的云结构特征分析[J].高原气象, 2013, 32(4): 1148-1156, doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00108.
[14]赵桂香, 赵建峰, 杨东, 等.山西一次大暴雨过程云图及环境场的特征分析[J].高原气象, 2013, 32(6): 1747-1757, doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00163.
[15]李晓霞, 尚大成, 谌芸, 等.甘肃陇南两次不同强度暴雨天气的中尺度特征分析[J].高原气象, 2013, 32(5): 1389-1399, doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00130.
[16]何斌, 何锋, 范晓红, 等.一次长江中下游梅雨锋暴雨过程的诊断分析[J].高原气象, 2013, 32(4): 1074-1083, doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00101.
[17]Hart R E, Forbes R S, Grumm R H.The use of hourly model-generated soundings to forecast mesoscale phenomena Part I: Initial assessment in forecasting warm-season phenomena[J].Wea Forecasting, 1998, 13(4): 1165-1185.
[18]Hart R E, Forbes R S, Grumm R H.The use of hourly model-generated soundings to forecast mesoscale phenomena Part Ⅱ: Initial assessment in forecasting nonconvective storng wind gusts[J].Wea Forecasting, 1999, 14(3): 461-469.
[19]Mills G A, Colquhoun J R.Objective prediction of severe thunderstorm environ ments: Preliminary results linking a decision tree with an operational regional NWP model[J].Wea Forecasting, 1998, 13(4): 1078-1092.
[20]彭治班, 刘建文, 郭虎, 等.国外强对流天气的应用研究[M].北京: 气象出版社, 2001: 89-97.
[21]江玉华, 刘娟, 何跃, 等.一次伴随冰雹的超级单体风暴特征[J].气象科技, 2011, 39(2): 172-181.
[22]张林, 杨洪平, 张涛, 等.ROSE系统在沈阳一次强冰雹过程分析中的应用[J].气象科技, 2013, 41(2): 242-249.
[23]刘健文, 郭虎, 李耀东, 等.天气分析预报物理量计算基础[M].北京: 气象出版社, 2005: 11-93.
[24]刘裕禄, 黄勇.黄山山脉地形对暴雨降水增幅条件研究[J].高原气象, 2013, 32(2): 608-615.
