Plateau Meteorology

Plateau Meteorology >

2016 , Vol. 35 >Issue 5: 1157 - 1168

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00090

Evaluation and Projections of Permafrost on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by CMIP5 Coupled Climate Models

  • CHANG Yan ,
  • LYU Shihua ,
  • LUO Siqiong ,
  • WU Jing ,
  • LI Ruiqing ,
  • LI Suosuo
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  • Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Lanzhou 730020, China;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regional Meteorological Observatory, Hohhot 010051, China

Received date: 2015-04-22

  Online published: 2016-10-28

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Abstract

As an important forcing factor of the land surface, permafrost is very sensitive indicator of climate change. The freeze-thaw process is directly involved in local energy and water cycles, and in turn affects weather and climate. In this study, using the multi-model results from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we computed the near-surface permafrost area on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) via surface frost index (SFI) method, and assessed the ability of models to simulate the related climate variables and present-day (1986-2005) permafrost, by comparing with the reanalysis products and the frozen soil map of the QXP. Based on this assessment, the climate models were aggregated by arithmetic mean to project the changes of permafrost on the QXP under the four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results show that the CMIP5 coupled models have some simulation capabilities for permafrost on the QXP. The simulated present-day near surface permafrost distribution is similar to the plateau frozen soil map, with the annual average of permafrost area of 127.5×104 km2 (1986-2005). The prediction results by multi-model ensemble mean indicate that the permafrost appear a degradation tendency on the QXP, especially on the eastern, southern and the edges of northern plateau. The permafrost will shrink from the edges to the north-west inner part of the QXP, and most probably exist only in the northwestern regions by 2099. Using the SFI method, the rate of the permafrost area change under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios are-2.2×104 km2·(10a)-1, -5.9×104 km2·(10a)-1, -5.4×104 km2·(10a)-1 and -10.0×104 km2·(10a)-1, respectively. In the next 50 years, the permafrost area will decrease about 23.9×104 km2 (20.8%), 33.5×104 km2 (27.7%), 25.6×104 km2 (21.1%) and 43.5×104 km2 (35.3%) under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. The average values of permafrost area in the last period of 21st century are about 91.4×104 km2 (RCP2.6), 70.9×104 km2 (RCP4.5), 72.8×104 km2 (RCP6.0) and 41.7×104 km2 (RCP8.5). Although there are large ranges in degree of degradation for different scenarios, the linearity of relationship exist between the permafrost area and the surface air temperature.

Key words： Qinghai-Xizang Plate; CMIP5; Permafrost change; Surface frost index; Projection

Cite this article

CHANG Yan , LYU Shihua , LUO Siqiong , WU Jing , LI Ruiqing , LI Suosuo . Evaluation and Projections of Permafrost on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by CMIP5 Coupled Climate Models[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2016 , 35(5) : 1157 -1168 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00090

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