A weather forecast system is very sensitive to the model error. Particularly, the uncertainty in sub-grid parametrization process has the essential effect on the accuracy of weather forecast system. Due to small time scale, fast and strong nonlinear development of the storm-scale system, the traditional medium-range ensemble forecast method is obsolete. Stochastic Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies (SPPT) scheme, Stochastic Kinetic-Energy Backscatter (SKEB) scheme and mixed model perturbation (SKEB+SPPT) scheme are added to the storm-scale ensemble forecast system, in order to simulate a severe convection weather process in Anhui province on 31 May 2014.This paper evaluates the performance of ensemble forecast and analyses the characteristics of stochastic perturbation and kinetic energy evolvement. Results shows that the 60 km length scale and 3 h decorrelation time scale in SPPT are best in this case. The mixed model perturbation scheme increases (reduces) the spread and accuracy (the forecast error) of SPPT scheme only or SKEB scheme only, and decreases the mistaking and missing forecast of precipitation. The perturbation spatial distribution of the mixed model perturbation scheme is similar to that of the SPPT scheme at the beginning of forecast. As forecast time goes on, the perturbation spatial distribution is transformed and is similar to that of SKEB. The kinetic energy perturbation of the mixed model perturbation scheme is obviously bigger than that of SPPT only or SKEB only in all scales, indicating that the combination of the two stochastic perturbation schemes can efficiently complement the missing energy in different scales.
CAI Yuanchen
,
MIN Jinzhong
,
ZHUANG Xiaoran
. Comparison of Different Stochastic Physics Perturbation Schemes on a Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast in a Heavy Rain Event[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2017
, 36(2)
: 407
-423
.
DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00024
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