Plateau Meteorology

Plateau Meteorology >

2017 , Vol. 36 >Issue 5: 1176 - 1187

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00131

Probability Distribution for the Summer Extreme Precipitation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

  • CAO Yu ,
  • YOU Qinglong ,
  • MA Qianrong ,
  • MENG Xianhong
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  • Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD); Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received date: 2016-09-09

  Online published: 2017-10-28

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Abstract

Based on the homogenous historical precipitation dataset in the eastern and central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), the two-parameter and three-parameter Weibull distribution, generalized extreme value distribution, Pearson type-Ⅲ distribution and log-logistic distribution selected to fit the summer extreme precipitation indices to study the characteristics of the probability distribution of summer extreme precipitation indices over the QTP during 1961-2014.The results are showed as follows:The distribution of extreme precipitation decreased gradually from southeast to northwest of the eastern and central QTP, with a maximum center located in the southeast of Sichuan province, and the Rikeze station at southeast of Tibet Autonomous Region was the other max value center, while the minimum center was seated at the northwest of Qinghai province.Through the fitting of extreme precipitation indices by the extremum probability function, we found that different probability functions are fitted for different indices, and which probability function to choose is depends on the comparison of a variety probability function models combined with the actual physical sense.Then, Gumbel distribution was used to calculate different return levels of summer extreme precipitation indices, and it had the same spatial distribution of the 50 a and 100 a return levels that the precipitation was more at southeast and less at northwest of the region.After testing by moving t-test, R95 and R99 average value abruptly changed at the year 2006, and the extreme precipitation increased after 2006 according to the return level values of Gumbel probability distribution for summer extreme precipitation indices.

Key words： Qinghai-Tibetan Plat; Summer extreme preci; Extreme distribution

Cite this article

CAO Yu , YOU Qinglong , MA Qianrong , MENG Xianhong . Probability Distribution for the Summer Extreme Precipitation in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2017 , 36(5) : 1176 -1187 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00131

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