Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Accumulated Negative Temperature in Qilian Mountains under Climate Change

  • WANG Xiqiang ,
  • CHEN Rensheng ,
  • LIU Junfeng
Expand
  • Qilian Alpine Ecology and Hydrology Research Station, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Key Laboratory of Inland Ecohydrology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2016-07-28

  Online published: 2017-10-28

Abstract

Under the background of climate change, the warming trend in China is significant, especially in winter, which has changed the degree and the spatio-temporal distributions of heat resources.Based on the meteorological data of 32 meteorological stations over the past 56 years in and around the Qilian Mountains and DEM data, rasterizing accumulated negative temperature data was conducted using the "multiple regression plus residual interpolation" method.Results of cross-validation errors revealed that OK gave the best simulation.The results of spatial and temporal variation showed that:(1) Annual average absolute values of accumulated negative temperature were ranged from 607℃ to 3507℃ in the study area, and the differentiation of regional distributing was large; The area of accumulated temperature segment Ⅲ, Ⅳ and Ⅱcaptured nearly 91.31% of total area; The accumulated temperature segments presented nearly ring distribution and rised gradually from outside to inside except Ⅵ; On grid scale, the dynamic index of accumulated negative temperature decreased gradually from south to north.(2) By using the methods of linear trend estimates, from 1960 to 2015, the results indicated that the initial date showed an obvious delaying tendency with the linear rate of 1.3 d·(10a)-1, the termination date showed an obvious forward tendency with the linear rate of 2.4 d·(10a)-1, and the sustainable days showed an obvious declining tendency with the linear rate of 3.7 d·(10a)-1.Most of the stations passed the statistical tests of P < 0.1.(3) From 1960s to 2000s, the area of accumulated temperature segment Ⅰ and Ⅱ decreased significantly, and accumulated temperature segment Ⅴ and Ⅵ increased significantly, which was the most obvious characteristic in Qilian Mountains.However, the trend was opposite from 2000s to after 2010 (2010-2015), which may be the result of warming stagnation.The area of accumulated temperature segment Ⅲ and Ⅳ decreased and increased respectively, which showed fluctuation changes.(4) The main types of the change of accumulated temperature segment in the study area were Ⅲ~Ⅳ(25.72%), Ⅳ~Ⅴ(19.66%)andⅡ~Ⅲ(17.90%), which captured 97.73% of the total change.The area which keeped unchanged captured 32.48% of the total change.The transfer matrix of accumulated negative temperature indicated that, from 1960s to after 2010, accumulated negative temperature segment was one-way transfer, which transferred from the higher absolute values of accumulated negative temperature to the lower.However, in adjacent time, it presented two-way transfer.The way from the higher absolute values of accumulated negative temperature to the lower was dominant.

Cite this article

WANG Xiqiang , CHEN Rensheng , LIU Junfeng . Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Accumulated Negative Temperature in Qilian Mountains under Climate Change[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2017 , 36(5) : 1267 -1275 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00096

References

[1]Chen Y N, Deng H J, Li B F, et al. 2014. Abrupt change of temperature and precipitation extremes in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Quaternary International, 336:35-43.
[2]Hansen J, Ruedy R, Glaseoe J, et al. 1999. GISS analysis of surface temperature change[J]. J Geophys Res, 104(D24):30997-31022.
[3]Ji F, Wu Z H, Huang J P, et al. 2014. Evolution of land surface air temperature trend[J]. Nature Climate Change, 4(6):462-466.
[4]Cao Bin, Zhang Tingjun, Peng Xiaoqing, et al. 2015. Spatial variability of freezing-thawing index over the Heihe River Basin[J]. Adv Earth Sci, 30(3):357-366. DOI:10. 11867/j.issn. 1001-8166. 2015. 03. 0357.<br/>曹斌, 张廷军, 彭小清, 等. 2015.黑河流域年冻融指数及其时空变化特征分析[J].地球科学进展, 30(3):357-366.
[5]Chen Jianwen, Liu Yaowu, Xu Xiaohong, et al. 2003. Variation and trend prediction of winter negative accumulated temperature in Shanbei and Weibei Regions[J]. Chinese J Agrometeor, 24(2):8-11.<br/>陈建文, 刘耀武, 徐小红, 等. 2003.陕北、渭北冬季负积温变化特征及趋势预测[J].中国农业气象, 24(2):8-11.
[6]Gu Wei, Shi Peijun, Liu Yang, et al. 2002. The characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of negative accumulated temperature in Bohai Sea and north Yellow Sea[J]. J Natural Res, 17 (2):168-173.<br/>顾卫, 史培军, 刘杨, 等. 2002.渤海和黄海北部地区负积温资源的时空分布特征[J].自然资源学报, 17(2):168-173.
[7]Li Qingxiang, Dong Wenjie, Li Wei, et al. 2010. Assessment of the uncertainties in temperature change in China during the last century[J]. Chinese Sci Bull, 55(16):1544-1554. DOI:10. 1007/s11434-010-3209-1.<br/>李庆祥, 董文杰, 李伟, 等. 2010.近百年中国气温变化中的不确定性估计[J].科学通报, 55(16):1544-1554.
[8]Liu Dexiang, Dong Anxiang, Deng Zhenyong. 2005. Impact of climate warming on agriculture in Northwest China[J]. J Natural Res, 20(1):119-125.<br/>刘德祥, 董安祥, 邓振镛. 2005.中国西北地区气候变暖对农业的影响[J].自然资源学报, 20(1):119-125.
[9]Ma Deli, Chen Zhenghong. 2010. On the change of the main boundary temperature(≥ 10℃ &amp; ≥ 20℃) in Jingzhou city[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yantze Basin, 19(Z2):72-78.<br/>马德栗, 陈正洪. 2010.荆州主要界限温度初终日、持续天数和积温的变化[J].长江流域资源与环境, 19(Z2):72-78.
[10]Niu Li, Ye Baisheng, Li Jing, et al. 2011. Effect of permafrost degradation on hydrological processes in typical basins with varying permafrost coverage in Western China[J]. Science China:Earth Sciences, 41(1):85-92. DOI:10. 1007/s11430-010-4073-1.<br/>牛丽, 叶柏生, 李静, 等. 2011.中国西北地区典型流域冻土退化对水文过程的影响[J].中国科学, 41(1):85-92.
[11]Qian Jinxia, Li Na, Han Pu. 2014. Influence of climate warming in winter on the winter wheat cultivable area in Shanxi Province[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 69(5):672-680.<br/>钱锦霞, 李娜, 韩普. 2014.冬季气候变暖对山西省冬小麦可种植区的影响[J].地理学报, 69(5):672-680.
[12]Ren Guoyu, Chu Ziying, Zhou Yaqing, et al. 2005. Recent progresses in studies of regional temperature changes in China[J]. Climatic Environ Res, 10(4):701-716.<br/>任国玉, 初子莹, 周雅清, 等. 2005.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究, 10(4):701-716.
[13]Sang Jianren, Liu Yulan, Han Shitao, et al. 2007. Character of the climate change for the negative accumulated temperature in Ningxia[J]. Scientia Meteor Sinica, 27(2):202-207.<br/>桑建人, 刘玉兰, 韩世涛, 等. 2007.宁夏冬季负积温变化特征[J].气象科学, 27(2):202-207.
[14]Sun Landong, Liu Dexiang. 2008. Characteristics of heat response in response to climate change in Northwest China[J]. J Arid Meteor, 26(1):8-12.<br/>孙兰东, 刘德祥. 2008.西北地区热量资源对气候变化的响应特征[J].干旱气象, 26(1):8-12.
[15]Wang Xing, Zhang Qiang, Guo Ni, et al. 2010. Remote sensing research of snow cover distribution and variation in Qilian Mountains in the winter half year of 1996-2002[J]. Plateau Meteor, 29(2):366-372.<br/>王兴, 张强, 郭铌, 等. 2010.祁连山区冬半年积雪分布及变化的遥感研究[J].高原气象, 29(2):366-372.
[16]Wang Zhi, Shi Qingdong, Chang Shunli, et al. 2012. Study on spatial interpolation method of mean air temperature in Xinjiang[J]. Plateau Meteor, 31(1):201-208.<br/>王智, 师庆东, 常顺利, 等. 2012.新疆地区平均气温空间插值方法研究[J].高原气象, 31(1):201-208.
[17]Yang Xiaoli, Xin Jiwu. 2007. The change characteristics and trend prediction of negative accumulated temperature in Gansu Province[J]. Resour Sci, 29(4):114-120.<br/>杨小利, 辛吉武. 2007.甘肃省冬季负积温资源的变化特征及预测[J].资源科学, 29(4):114-120.
[18]Yin Xianzhi, Zhang Qiang, Xu Qiyun, et al. 2009. Characteristics of climate change in Qilian Mountains region in recent 50 years[J]. Plateau Meteor, 28(1):85-90.<br/>尹宪志, 张强, 徐启运, 等. 2009.近50年来祁连山区气候变化特征研究[J].高原气象, 28(1):85-90.
[19]Yue Wenze, Xu Jianhua, Xu Lihua. 2005. A study on spatial interpolation methods for climate variables based on geostatistics[J]. Plateau Meteor, 24(6):974-980.<br/>岳文泽, 徐建华, 徐丽华. 2005.基于地统计方法的气候要素空间插值研究[J].高原气象, 24(6):974-980.
[20]Zhang Shixuan, Zhang Lu, Sun Shupeng, et al. 2011. Changes of the seasons in mainland China under global warming[J]. Plateau Meteor, 30(3):659-667.<br/>张世轩, 张璐, 孙树鹏, 等. 2011.全球变暖情况下中国季节的变化[J].高原气象, 30(3):659-667.
[21]Zhao Chuancheng, Wang Yan, Ding Yongjian, et al. 2011. Spatial-temporal variations of temperature and precipitation in northern China in recent 50 years[J]. Plateau Meteor, 30(2):385-390.<br/>赵传成, 王雁, 丁永建, 等. 2011.西北地区近50年气温及降水的时空分布[J].高原气象, 30(2):385-390.
[22]Zheng Dongxiao, Yang Xiaoguang, Zhao Jin, et al. 2015. Spatial and temporal patterns of freezing injury during winter in Huang-Huai Winter Wheat Area under climate change[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 35(13):4338-4346.<br/>郑冬晓, 杨晓光, 赵锦, 等. 2015.气候变化背景下黄淮冬麦区冬季长寒型冻害时空变化特征[J].生态学报, 35(13):4338-4346.
Outlines

/