Evaluation and Correction for the Deviation of the Surface Air Temperature based on 24 CMIP5 Models over China for 2006-2015

  • ZHANG Bei ,
  • DAI Xingang
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  • College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China;Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;Tianshui Meteorology Bureau, Tianshui 741000, Gansu, China

Received date: 2016-06-08

  Online published: 2017-12-28

Abstract

The deviation of surface air temperature projected by 24 models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase five (CMIP5) over China from 2006 to 2015 under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios was revealed and corrected. Compared with the data from NCEP/NCAR, the differences of projected temperature among the 24 models are more obvious in the east than the west over China. The annual and seasonal mean model-ensemble temperature are both underestimated in most parts of China, while the deviation is larger in the western region and it is largest in Tibet Plateau. In summer, the uncertainty of projected temperature is lower than other seasons. However, the phenomenon of underestimating temperature is enhanced obviously in winter. In addition, the higher emission intensity would enhance the underestimation of temperature in the most parts of China and the impact is more evident to the western regions, but the deviation would be lower in Tibet Plateau and Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau. Furthermore, the inter-annual differences of the temperature deviations are similar, except in the northeastern regions, and the patterns of the deviations are similar between El Niño years and La Niña years. After the terrain correction, the deviation of model temperature could reduce about 20%, and the deviation of the complex terrain region is effectively correction. The EOF indicates that historical simulation temperature by CMIP5 models has climate drift and the deviation is associated with topographic deviation. By deducting the climate drift, the effect of topographic and interpolation can be eliminated. The deviation of annual temperature would decrease about 72%. The models temperature is still underestimated and the deviations are about ±1℃ in most parts of China. However, this method makes the deviation turn to warmer in western region in summer and it is still colder in eastern region in winter. This suggests that the areas where the temperature deviations of models are lower would be vulnerable to the impact of deviation rate. Therefore, except the climate drift of models, the temporal evolution characteristics of deviations must be considered in the more detailed error correction methods.

Cite this article

ZHANG Bei , DAI Xingang . Evaluation and Correction for the Deviation of the Surface Air Temperature based on 24 CMIP5 Models over China for 2006-2015[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2017 , 36(6) : 1619 -1629 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00136

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