Check Analysis of the Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in Summer by NCEP CFSv2

ZHOU Ningfang; JIA Xiaolong

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00036

Plateau Meteorology >

2018 , Vol. 37 >Issue 2: 469 - 480

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00036

Check Analysis of the Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in Summer by NCEP CFSv2

ZHOU Ningfang ,
JIA Xiaolong

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National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China;National Climate center, Beijing 100081, China

Received date: 2017-01-26

Online published: 2018-04-28

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Abstract

Daily output data from 12-year retrospective forecasts by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) was analyzed to understand the skill of forecasting summertime atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere and associated climate anomalies in East Asia. Prediction skills of sector blocking, sector-blocking episodes, and blocking onset/decay were assessed with a focus on the Ural mountains sector (10°E-70°E) and the Baikal-Okhotsk sector (110°E-180°) based on the hit rate, the false alarm rate, the bias score, and the HSS skill scores. Circulation and climate patterns in East Asia associated with blocking in the CFSv2 predictions were also examined. The CFSv2 captures the observed features of longitudinal distribution of blocking activity well, but underestimates blocking frequency and shows a decreasing trend in blocking frequency with increasing forecast lead time. Skillful forecast (if taking the hit rate of 50% as a criterion) can be obtained up to 7 days in both the Ural mountains (10°E-70°E) and the Baikal-Okhotsk (110°E-180°) sectors. When beyond two weeks, there are nearly little skills. The forecast skill of sector-blocking episodes is slightly lower than that of sector blocking in both sectors, and it is slightly higher in the Ural mountains sector than that in the Baikal-Okhotsk sector sector. Compared to block onset, the skill for block decay is slightly lower in the Ural mountains sector, and for both sectors, forecast skills of the block onset and the block decay tend to near zero when forecast lead time beyond 7 days. In both two sectors, a local dipole pattern at 500 hPa geopotential height associated with blocking and associated wave-train like patterns which are far away from the blocking sector can also well represented in CFSv2. The CFSv2 well reproduces the observed characteristics of local temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the blocking over both sectors. Additionally, the CFSv2 also well reproduces the observed above normal precipitations over southern China when both sectors occur blocking, particularly in the Baikal-Okhotsk sector.

Key words： Blocking; Northern Hemisphere; summertime; CFSv2; forecast skill

Cite this article

ZHOU Ningfang , JIA Xiaolong . Check Analysis of the Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in Summer by NCEP CFSv2[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2018 , 37(2) : 469 -480 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00036

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