Based on the dual temperature threshold method, the precipitation and temperature data of four national meteorological stations in Xilin River Basin from 1969 to 1979 were used to calculate the relationship between the snowfall ratio and the daily average temperature, and the critical temperature of snowfall discrimination in the Xilin River Basin was determined, and the snowfall identification index equation was fitted.. According to the critical temperature and identification equation, the snowfall of each station in the basin was estimated from 1980 to 2016, and the Mann-Kendall test was used to test the snowfall of 1969-2016 to find the typical mutation point of snowfall in the basin. A simulation scheme for temperature and precipitation changes was established for the boundary, and their contribution to the change of snowfall was quantified. The results showed that the snowfall identification method combined with the critical temperature and snowfall identification equation can better estimate the snowfall at each station in the Xilin River Basin, and the correlation coefficient is above 0.89 with an error of less than 4%. The trend of estimated snowfall between the stations in the basin is inconsistent in the Xilin River from 1980 to 2016, and the snowfall in the whole basin shows a trend of increasing eastward and decreasing westward. According to the results of Mann-Kendall mutation test, the typical mutation point of the basin was taken in 1980. and the simulation scheme of temperature and precipitation change was established. It was concluded that the temperature increase had a negative contribution to the snowfall change during the snowfall period, and the increase of precipitation contributed positively to the snowfall. The combination of temperature and precipitation will promote the increase in snowfall.
WANG Fei
,
ZHU Zhongyuan
,
HAO Xiangyun
,
HAN Dongdong
,
WANG Huimin
,
WANG Qiong
. Snowfall Identification and Evolution Trend in Xilin River Basin[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2019
, 38(4)
: 725
-733
.
DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00119
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