To explore the operational performance of northwest high?resolution Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) system, the operational forecasts during 2nd June to 6th July of 2012 were verified and evaluated.The Northwest RUC predictive results were interpolated to the nearby observation site using the bilinear interpolation method.Statistical methods were used to calculate mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) of geopotential height field, temperature, wind direction and wind speed at 500 hPa and 700 hPa, then the score of TS, deviation (BIA), T score (ETS) fair and true skill score (TSS) were calculated to evaluate the quantitative precipitation predicted in 24 hours.The results are as follows: (1) there were systematic positive deviation for height field prediction, temperature field prediction, and wind speed predication at 500 hPa and temperature at 2?meter height, the 24?hour average of ME were 0.17 gpm, 0.63 ℃, 1.19 m·s-1, 1.49 ℃, respectively.Height field prediction and temperature field prediction at 700 hPa showed systematic negative deviation, the 24?hour average of ME was -0.41 gpm, -0.11 ℃, respectively.(2) Except for wind speed and wind direction, other elements forecast effect in 24?hour were better than the forecast effect in 48?hour of the model, which match to the prediction performance.The 24?hour average of RMSE of geopotential height field and temperature at 500 hPa were 1.32 gpm, 1.37 ℃, respectively, and the value of 48?hour of RMSE were 1.56 gpm， 1.53 ℃, respectively.The 24?hour average of RMSE of geopotential height field and temperature at 700 hPa was 1.21 gpm, 1.40 ℃, respectively, and the value of 48?hour of RMSE were 1.38 gpm， 1.94 ℃, respectively.The 24?hour and 48?hour average of RMSE of temperature at 2?meter were 3.06 ℃, 3.30 ℃, respectively.(3) The TS score, ETS score and TSS score of quantitative precipitation were almost have the same large value center at different precipitation grade in 24 hours.It means the precipitation forecast effect was comparatively good near the center region of the large value.The heavy rain and rainstorm forecast effect was better in the southeastern of Northwest area.From the BIA score, the model forecasted less light rain events than observed, but forecasted more moderate rain and heavy rain events than observed in the south of Qinghai and north of Sichuan.
Xianyu YANG
,
Jun WEN
,
Guangshan NIU
,
Dayong WANG
,
Jianglin LI
,
Jinlei CHEN
. Performance Tests and Evaluations of Northwest Rapid Update Cycle Prediction System[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2020
, 39(1)
: 90
-101
.
DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00010
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