In order to provide more objective description of the overall drought status, this paper employed a joint precipitation deficit index by empirical Copula function to evaluate drought condition.The Panjiakou Reservoir catchment of Luanhe River basin was chose as the study area.The accumulated precipitation from 1- to 12-month were selected from the monthly precipitation data from 26 rain gauges during the period of 1959 -2011.Based on the values of standardized precipitation index and joint precipitation deficit index, we assessed and analyzed the drought conditions in the study area.It was demonstrated that the joint precipitation deficit index integrates the information of water deficit status at various time scales and takes a full consideration of the cumulative effects of drought.It also can avoid the inconsistent conclusions resulting from using standardized precipitation index with different time scales.In addition, the drought characteristics of the study area were analyzed according to the series of joint precipitation deficit index.The results indicated that the occurrence frequency of the drought generally increases from northwest to southeast, with higher frequency in summer and autumn.Compared with the northwestern part of the area, the drought events in the southeast are characterized with longer duration and more serious severity.Furthermore, a general tendency of drying was found in the flood season across the area, while significant aggravating trends in drought were detected in the southeastern part.The joint precipitation deficit index is capable of reflecting the drought spatial and temporal characteristics and evolution laws, thereby taking as a new technical way of studying regional drought.
[1]Ayantobo O O, Li Y, Song S, al et, 2018.Probabilistic modelling of drought events in china via 2-dimensional joint copula[J].Journal of Hydrology, 559: 373-391.
[2]Byun H R, Wilhite D A, 1999.Objective quantification of drought severity and duration [J].Journal of Climate, 12(9): 2747-2756.
[3]Douglas E M, Vogel R M, Kroll C N, 2000.Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: Impact of spatial correlation [J].Journal of Hydrology, 240(1-2): 90-105.
[4]Kao S C, Govindaraju R S, 2008.Trivariate statistical analysis of extr-eme rainfall events via Plackett family of copulas[J].Water Resources Research, 44(2), W02415.DOI: 10.1029/2007WR006261.
[5]Kao S C, Govindaraju R S, 2010.A copula-based joint deficit index for droughts[J].Journal of Hydrology, 380(1): 121-134.
[6]McKee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J, 1993.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C].In: Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology.Boston: American Meteorological Society, 179-184.
[7]Modarres R, 2007.Streamflow drought time series forecasting[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 21(3): 223-233.
[8]Sklar A, 1959.Fonctions de répartition à n dimensions et leurs marges[J].Publications of the Institute of Statistics, University of Paris, 8: 229-231.
[9]von Storch H, 1995.Misuses of statistical analysis in climate Research.In: von Storch H., Navarra A.(eds) Analysis of Climate Variability[M].Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
[10]Yue S, Wang C Y, 2002.Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test[J].Water Resources Research, 38(6): 1-7.
[11]程亮, 金菊良, 郦建强, 等, 2013.干旱频率分析研究进展[J].水科学进展, 24(2): 296-302.
[12]池再香, 夏阳, 刘莉娟, 等, 2018.基于积温干燥度指数的云贵高原东部汛期干湿变化趋势分析[J].高原气象, 37(5): 1199-1207. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00075.
[13]冯平, 胡荣, 李建柱, 2014.基于三维对数线性模型的气象干旱等级预测研究[J].水利学报, 45(5): 505-512.
[14]冯平, 李建柱, 徐仙, 2008.潘家口水库入库水资源变化趋势及影响因[J].地理研究, 27(1): 213-220.
[15]高俊虎, 1998.三百年来承德地理环境演变趋势初探[J].干旱区研究, 15(2): 70-74.
[16]桓玉, 李跃清, 2018.夏季东亚季风和南亚季风协同作用与我国南方夏季降水异常的关系[J].高原气象, 37(6): 1563-1577.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00044.
[17]卢全海, 王占升, 2010.承德市2009年夏季干旱成因分析及防灾减灾建议[J].河北水利, (4): 20-21.
[18]马海娇, 严登华, 翁白沙, 等, 2013.典型干旱指数在滦河流域的适用性评价[J].干旱区研究, 30(4): 728-734.
[19]马转转, 张明军, 王圣杰, 等, 2019.1960 -2015年青藏高寒区与西北干旱区升温特征及差异[J].高原气象, 38(1): 42-54.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00074.
[20]毛东雷, 蔡富艳, 赵枫, 等, 2018.塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘近4年沙尘天气下的气象要素相关性分析[J].高原气象, 37(4): 1120-1128.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00010.
[21]孙鹏, 张强, 陈晓宏, 2011.潘阳湖流域枯水径流演变特征、 成因与影响[J].地理研究, 30(9): 1701-1712.
[22]王春林, 司建华, 赵春彦, 等, 2019.河西走廊近57年来干旱灾害特征时空演化分析[J].高原气象, 38(1): 196-205.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00081.
[23]王丹云, 吕世华, 韩博, 等, 2017.近30年黄土高原春季降水特征与春旱变化的关系[J].高原气象, 36(2): 395-406.DOI: 10. 7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00121.
[24]肖名忠, 张强, 陈晓宏, 2012.基于多变量概率分析的珠江流域干旱特征研究[J].地理学报, 67(1): 83-92.
[25]杨志勇, 袁喆, 方宏阳, 等, 2013.基于Copula函数的滦河流域旱涝组合事件概率特征分析[J].水利学报, 44(5): 556-569.
[26]张立杰, 李健, 2018.基于SPEI和SPI指数的西江流域干旱多时间尺度变化特征[J].高原气象, 37(2): 560-567.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00013.
[27]张迎, 黄生志, 黄强, 等, 2018.基于Copula函数的新型综合干旱指数构建与应用[J].水利学报, 49(6): 703-714.
[28]张宇亮, 蒋尚明, 金菊良, 等, 2017.基于区域农业用水量的干旱重现期计算方法[J].水科学进展, 28(5): 691-701.
[29]章诞武, 丛振涛, 倪广恒, 2013.基于中国气象资料的趋势检验方法对比分析[J].水科学进展, 24(4): 490-496.
[30]郑红星, 刘静, 2011.东北地区近40年干燥指数变化趋势及其气候敏感性[J].地理研究, 30(10): 1765-1774.