Objective Correction Method for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Based on ECMWF Model

  • Jing ZHENG ,
  • Houjie XIA ,
  • Juan CHEN ,
  • Suqin SUN
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  • Jiangxi Province Meteorological Observatory, Nanchang 330096, Jiangxi, China

Received date: 2019-08-12

  Online published: 2020-08-28

Abstract

Based on ECMWF model, quantitative precipitation forecasting experiment was carried out with logistic model.The results show that: (1) Compared with EC model, precipitation forecasting modeled by single-station will provide limited benefits.After optimized precipitation division、 enlarged rainstorm samples、 bias correction for local climatic precipitation, TS scores has been improved.(2) The objective quantitative precipitation has been applied in grid forecasting in Jiangxi in 2018.Results show that the TS scores of rainfall and different-class precipitation are much better than EC model and forecasters, especially for heavy rain and torrential rain, which are 25%~1 times higher.(3) The products of this scheme has better recognition for rainstorm which are concentrated and forced by strong synoptic-scale systems.While it can't be accurate predicted in the situation of dispersive precipitation, which happened in warm sector、 edged of sub-tropical high in midsummer, etc.When the model has obvious systematic deviation to weather situation and main rain region, the objective correction can't improve the model results either.

Cite this article

Jing ZHENG , Houjie XIA , Juan CHEN , Suqin SUN . Objective Correction Method for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Based on ECMWF Model[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2020 , 39(4) : 830 -839 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00116

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