Study on the Cycles of Sunspots in the Earth’s Land-Ocean Temperature Index Since 1880

Jijun GUO; Zhilong GUO; Ninglian WANG

doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2020.00038

Plateau Meteorology >

2020 , Vol. 39 >Issue 4: 851 - 858

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2020.00038

Study on the Cycles of Sunspots in the Earth’s Land-Ocean Temperature Index Since 1880

Jijun GUO ,
Zhilong GUO ,
Ninglian WANG

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1.State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China;2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3.Northwest University, Xi’An 710000, Shaanxi, China

Received date: 2020-04-26

Online published: 2020-08-28

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Abstract

Several cycles exist in time series in the earth's surface temperature.Solar radiation with some cycles is the external driving force of the earth's climate system which modulates the earth's surface temperature and its modulation role to the earth's surface temperature is also one of the basic research contents of climate prediction.The cycles of the earth's land-ocean temperature index since 1880 are analyzed by Morlet complex-valued wavelet transform method, and the 22-year cycle was identified in the earth's land-ocean temperature index.Using the method of moving average to improve the analysis method of air temperature anomalies, the amplitude of the 22-year cycle of the earth's land-ocean temperature index is obtained, and then combined with the MATLAB function fitting program, on the basis of the period, phase, amplitude, etc.The fitting results indicate that the 22-year cycle of the earth's land-ocean temperature index is positively correlated with the 22-year cycle of the sunspots.When the 22-year cycle of sunspot activity is in a positive phase, the surface temperature of the earth is in a warmer phase; when the 22-year cycle of sunspots is in a negative phase, the surface temperature of the earth is in a relatively low temperature phase.The temperature on the earth's surface fluctuates in the form of a quasi-sine function around its 22-year moving average.The long-period temperature of the earth's surface reflects the decadal climate background of the earth's surface temperature, and the short-period change process reflects the temperature change process under the long-period climate background.Multiple cycles overlap each other, forming a complex temperature fluctuation.Sunspot activity is not strictly a one-to-one correspondence with the Earth's surface temperature.The Earth's surface temperature is not only restricted by the factors affecting the long-term scale, but also affected by other short periods.Further analyses show that the 22-year magnetic cycle of sunspots may be a driving factor of the 22-year cycle in the earth's land-ocean temperature index.The amplitude of the 22-year cycle of the earth's land-ocean temperature index is up to about 0.21 °C under constrained by a 99% confidence level, which may have an important impact on the assessment of global warming.The 22-year cycle is an important factor for climate simulation and assessment research and provided some new evidences for quantitative research and driving mechanism of global climate.

Key words： Temperature; sunspot; global warming; temperature predicti; wavelet analysis

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Jijun GUO , Zhilong GUO , Ninglian WANG . Study on the Cycles of Sunspots in the Earth’s Land-Ocean Temperature Index Since 1880[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2020 , 39(4) : 851 -858 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2020.00038

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