Frost will seriously affect normal agricultural activities.It is of great significance to know and grasp the changing characteristics of the first frost and last frost and the frost-free period to guide agricultural production practices, improve the prevention and early warning capabilities of frost disasters.Based on the ground 0 cm daily minimum temperature and average temperature data of 90 stations (1961 -2018) in over North China, using the methods of linear regression, inverse distance weighted, Mann-Kendal test and cumulative anomaly to analyze the variation characteristics of the first frost and last frost and the frost-free period in North China.The results show that: (1) In terms of time changes, the first frost date, the last frost date and the frost-free period showing the significant trends in delay, advance and extension, respectively, which gradually became obvious from the 1980s; The changing characteristics of the frost reflects the climate warming.(2) Along with the decrease of the latitude and the altitude, the first frost date, the last frost date and the frost-free period show trends of delay, advance and extension, respectively.And if the average temperature at the station raised significantly, the rate of delay, advance and extension of the initial, final and frost-free periods is also significant; The first frost date, the last frost date and the frost-free period in the mountain are earlier, later and shorter than those in the plain, respectively.(3) The mutation years of first frost date, last frost date and the frost-free period were 1986, 1995 and 1995, respectively.And the mutation years of the frost in the three sub-regions all occurred in the 1980s and 1990s.(4) Based on different climatic reference periods and different decadal, The locations of the contour lines of the first frost date, the last frost date and the frost-free period all gradually moving northward.(5) The changes in the predicted frost period are roughly the delay of the first frost date, the advance of the last frost date, and the prolonged frost-free period.But there is a slight difference in the magnitude of the change with the descending order of frost-free period, last frost date and first frost date.
Wenhui JIAO
,
Bo ZHANG
,
Bin MA
,
Yanqiang CUI
,
Liting XING
,
Xiaodan WANG
,
Hao HUANG
. Variation Characteristics of the Date of First Frost and Last Frost and the Frost-Free Period in North China in Recent 58 Years[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2021
, 40(2)
: 343
-352
.
DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2020.00085
[1]Anandhi A, Zion M S, Gowda P H, et al, 2013.Past and future changes in frost day indices in Catskill Mountain region of New York[J].Hydrological Processes, 27(21): 3094-3104.DOI: 10.1002/hyp.v27.21, 3094-3104.
[2]Augspurger C K, 2013.Reconstructing patterns of temperature, phenology, and frost damage over 124 years: spring damage risk is increasing[J].Ecology, 94(1): 41-50.DOI: 10.2307/23435667.
[3]Erlat E, Turkes M, 2012.Analysis of observed variability and trends in numbers of frost days in Turkey for the period 1950-2010[J].International Journal of Climatology, 32(12): 1889-1898.DOI: 10.1002/joc.2403.
[4]Kendall M G, 1975.Rank Correlation Measures[M].London: Charles Griffin, 202.
[5]Liu Q, Piao S, Janssens I A, et al, 2018.Extension of the growing season increases vegetation exposure to frost[J].Nature Communication, 9: 426.DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02690-y.
[6]Mann H B, 1945.Nonparametric test against trend[J].Econometrica, 13(3): 245-259.DOI: 10.2307/1907187.
[7]陈乾金, 张永山, 1995.华北异常初终霜冻气候特征的研究[J].自然灾害学报, 4(3): 33-39.DOI: 10.13577/j.jnd.1995.0307.
[8]冯秀藻, 1991.农业气象学原理[M].北京: 气象出版社, 127-143.
[9]符淙斌, 安芷生, 郭维栋, 2005.我国生存环境演变和北方干旱化趋势预测研究I.主要研究成果[J].地球科学进展, 20(11): 1157-1167.DOI: 10.3321/j.issn: 1001-8166.2005.11.001.
[10]韩荣青, 李维京, 艾婉秀, 等, 2010.中国北方初霜冻日期变化及其对农业的影响[J].地理学报, 65(5): 525-532.DOI: 10. 11821/dlxb201005002.
[11]韩学俭, 2002.冬小麦春霜冻害防御技术[J].河南科技, 2(4): 10.
[12]贺伟, 布仁仓, 熊在平, 等, 2013.1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报, 33(2): 519-531.DOI: 10.5846/stxb201111241799.
[13]贾艳青, 张勃, 张耀宗, 等, 2017.城市化对长三角地区极端气温影响的时空分异研究[J].自然资源学报, 32(5): 814-828.DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160575.
[14]李芬, 于文金, 张建新, 等, 2012.山西近50 a初霜冻的气候变化特征及其周期分析[J].大气科学学报, 35(6): 754-761.
[15]李庆祥, 刘晓宁, 李小泉, 2002.近半世纪华北干旱化趋势研究[J].自然灾害学报, 11(3): 50-56.DOI: 10.13577/j.jnd.2002.0309.
[16]吕桂军, 袁巧丽, 2020.开封市1951-2018年气候变化特征及未来趋势研究[J].黄河水利职业技术学院学报 32(3): 31-36.
[17]吕越敏, 李宗省, 冯起, 等, 2019.近60年来祁连山极端气温变化研究[J].高原气象, 38(5): 959-970.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn. 1000-0534.2018.00135.
[18]马彬, 张勃, 贾艳青, 等, 2017.1961-2014年中国内陆农业区异常初、 终霜日时空变化及其与环流因子的关系[J].气象学报, 75(4): 661-671.DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2017.048.
[19]马尚谦, 张勃, 刘莉莉, 等, 2019a.甘肃省霜冻日期时空变化特征及影响因素[J].高原气象, 38(2): 397-409.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00132.
[20]马尚谦, 张勃, 唐敏, 等, 2018.1960-2015年淮河流域初终霜日时空变化分析[J].中国农业气象, 39(7): 468-478.DOI: 10. 3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.07.005.
[21]马尚谦, 张勃, 杨文义, 等, 2019b.1960-2015年淮河流域异常初、 终霜日时空变化及其影响因子[J].自然资源学报, 34(2): 359-373.DOI: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20190212.
[22]马树庆, 杨菲芸, 2015.我国霜期、 霜冻时空特征及其对气候变暖的响应[J].气象灾害防御, 22(2): 1-4.
[23]马柱国, 2003.中国北方地区霜冻日的变化与区域增暖相互关系[J].地理学报, 58(1): 31-37.DOI: 10.3321/j.issn: 0375-5444.2003.z1.004.
[24]宁晓菊, 张丽君, 杨群涛, 等, 2015.1951年以来中国无霜期的变化趋势[J].地理学报, 70(11): 1811-1822.DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201511010.
[25]宋海龙, 万红莲, 朱婵婵, 2018.过去1400年陕西地区霜冻灾害事件及其影响研究[J].干旱区资源与环境, 32(4): 170-176.
[26]王媛媛, 张勃, 2012.1971年至2010年陇东地区霜冻与积温变化特征[J].资源科学, 34(11): 2181-2188.
[27]魏凤英, 1999.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京: 气象出版社, 43-47.
[28]闫军辉, 徐新创, 周红升, 等, 2015.近53年河南省初终霜日期时空变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].农业资源与环境学报, 32(5): 506-510.DOI: 10.13254/j.jare.2015.0049.
[29]杨泽华, 2019.内蒙古主要气象灾害对农作物的影响[J].种子科技, 37(10): 11.
[30]叶殿秀, 张勇, 2008.1961-2007年我国霜冻变化特征[J].应用气象学报, 19(6): 661-665.DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20080604.
[31]周晓宇, 赵春雨, 崔妍, 等, 2017.1961-2013年中国东北地区初终霜日及无霜期的气候变化特征[J].自然资源学报, 32(3): 494-506.DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.20160379.