Evaluation on Simulation of the Inter-decadal Variation Characteristics of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex Boundary in the Northern Hemisphere by NECP CFSv2

  • Yajing LIU ,
  • Zhigang WEI ,
  • Guangyu CHEN ,
  • Yujia LIU
Expand
  • <sup>1.</sup>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;<sup>2.</sup>Key Laboratory of Wind Power Technology of Zhejiang Province,Zhejiang Windey Company Limited,Hangzhou 310012,Zhejiang,China

Received date: 2019-09-23

  Online published: 2021-10-28

Abstract

By using the ERA-I, the NECP CFSR reanalysis data and the CFSv2 of NECP reforecasts and forecasts data, the inter-decadal variations of the stratospheric polar vortex boundary in the northern hemisphere since the 1980s are analyzed, the ability of the CFSv2 to simulate the polar vortex boundary is evaluated.Results show that, from 1980 to 2017, the Arctic polar vortex retreats northward in North American and expands southward in Eurasia in winter, but the polar vortex expands in North America and retreats in Europe in autumn.The polar vortex expands obviously from the 1980s to the 2000s and retreats in the 2010s in Asia.In winter, the retraction of the polar vortex occurs mainly in the 1990s in North America, but the expansion of the polar vortex occurs mainly in the 2000s in Europe and in the 1990s in Asia.In autumn, the southern expansion of the polar vortex boundary in North America is mainly in the 1990s, the retraction of polar vortexes in Eurasia occurs in the 2010s, and the retraction in Western Europe is the most obvious.The overall trend of the winter polar vortex boundary and area simulated by CFSv2 is consistent with the ERA-I data in the 1980s -2010s, especially for the trend of expansion in North America and Asia in the 2010s.However, the boundary of the polar vortex simulated by CFSv2 is more to the east, and more to the south in the 2010s in North America.The boundary of the polar vortex simulated by CFSv2 is north in the 1990s and south in the 2010s in Europe.The expansions of Asia polar vortex boundary in the 1990s and 2000s in Asia cannot be simulated.In autumn, the simulation abilities of CFSv2 on the boundary positions and areas are poor than that in the winter, the simulations on the overall trend of polar vortex boundary and area variation are poor.The North American polar vortex boundaries simulated by CFSv2 are consistent with the ones of the ERA-I data in 1990s -2010s, but the range of expansion is larger in the 1990s.The retraction of the polar vortex boundary is mainly in the 2000s from CFSv2 while in the 2010s from ERA-I in Europe.The polar vortex boundary simulated by CFSv2 is consistent in the 1990s but exists more errors in the 2000s -2010s with the one of the ERA-I data in Asia.

Cite this article

Yajing LIU , Zhigang WEI , Guangyu CHEN , Yujia LIU . Evaluation on Simulation of the Inter-decadal Variation Characteristics of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex Boundary in the Northern Hemisphere by NECP CFSv2[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2021 , 40(5) : 1012 -1023 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2020.00076

References

[1]Angell J K, Korshover J, 1977.Variation in size and location of the 300 mb north circumpolar vortex between 1963 and 1975[J].Monthly Weather Review, 105(1): 19-25.
[2]Baldwin M P, Dunkerton T J, 2001.Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes[J].Science, 294(5542): 581-584.
[3]Black R X, McDaniel B A, 2009.Submonthly polar vortex variability and stratosphere–troposphere coupling in the Arctic[J].Journal of Climate, 22(22): 5886-5901.
[4]Burnett A W, 1993.Size variations and long-wave circulation within the January Northern Hemisphere circumpolar vortex: 1946-89[J].Journal of Climate, 6(10): 1914-1920.
[5]Castanheira J M, Barriopedro D, 2010.Dynamical connection between tropospheric blockings and stratospheric polar vortex[J].Geophysical research letters, 37(13).
[6]Gimeno L, de La Torre L, Nieto R, al et, 2007.A new diagnostic of stratospheric polar vortices[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 69(15): 1797-1812.
[7]Hurwitz M M, Newman P A, Li F, al et, 2010.Sment of the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex in two new chemistry-climate models[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 115(7).
[8]James P M, Peters D, Waugh D W, 2000.Very low ozone episodes due to polar vortex displacement[J].Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 52(4): 1123-1137.
[9]Huang J, Tian W, Gray L J, al et, 2018.Preconditioning of Arctic stratospheric polar vortex shift events[J].Journal of Climate, 31(14): 5417-5436.
[10]La Seur N E, 1954.On the asymmetry of the middle-latitude circumpolar current[J].Journal of Meteorology, 11(1): 43-57.
[11]Nash E R, Newman P A, Rosenfield J E, al et, 1996.An objective determination of the polar vortex using Ertel's potential vorticity[J].Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 101(D5): 9471-9478.
[12]Polvani L M, Waugh D W, 2004.Upward wave activity flux as a precursor to extreme stratospheric events and subsequent anomalous surface weather regimes[J].Journal of Climate, 17(18): 3548-3554.
[13]Sabeerali C T, Ajayamohan R S, Rao S A, 2019.Loss of predictive skill of indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2 due to misrepresentation of Atlantic zonal mode[J].Climate Dynamics, 52(7-8): 4599-4619.
[14]Seviour W J M, Gray L J, Mitchell D M, 2016.Stratospheric polar vortex splits and displacements in the high-top CMIP5 climate models[J].Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(4): 1400-1413.
[15]Solomon S, Manning M, Marquis M, al et, 2007.Climate change 2007-the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC[M].Cambridge university press.
[16]Waugh D N W, 1997.Elliptical diagnostics of stratospheric polar vortices[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 123(542): 1725-1748.
[17]Woo S H, Sung M K, Son S W, al et, 2015.Connection between weak stratospheric vortex events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation[J].Climate dynamics, 45(11-12): 3481-3492.
[18]Zhang J, Tian W, Chipperfield M P, al et, 2016.Persistent shift of the Arctic polar vortex towards the Eurasian continent in recent decades[J].Nature Climate Change, 6(12): 1094.
[19]极涡与气温长期预报课题协作组, 1990.描述极涡状态的物理量参量及其气候特征的初步分析[C].长期天气预报论文集.北京: 气象出版社.
[20]姜忠宝, 王盘兴, 吴息, 等, 2013.北半球冬季极涡异常变化的时空特征[J].大气科学学报, 36(2): 202-216.
[21]李威, 蔡锦辉, 郭艳君, 等, 2010.2009年全球重大天气气候事件概述[J].气象, 36(4): 106-110.
[22]李维京, 李怡, 陈丽娟, 等, 2013.我国冬季气温与影响因子关系的年代际变化[J].应用气象学报, 24(4): 385-395.
[23]李小泉, 刘宗秀, 1986.北半球及分区的 500hPa 极涡面积指数[J].气象, 12(S1): 69-83.
[24]李艳, 王嘉禾, 王式功, 2019.极涡、 阻塞高压和西伯利亚高压在极端低温事件中的组合性异常特征[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 55(1): 51-63.
[25]刘玉镇, 任荣彩, 何编, 2012.两个大气环流模式 SAMIL 和 BCC_AGCM 对北半球冬季极涡振荡的模拟对比[J].大气科学, 6: 1191-1206.
[26]陆春晖, 丁一汇, 张莉, 2014.BCC_AGCM2.1 模式对平流层环流变化特征的数值模拟及其模式评估[J].气象学报, 72(1): 49-61.
[27]沈柏竹, 廉毅, 李尚锋, 等, 2010.北半球对流中, 上层及平流层极涡特征初步分析[J].吉林大学学报: 地球科学版, (S1): 140-145.
[28]王嘉禾, 2018.东亚典型极端低温事件中大尺度环流系统组合性异常特征研究[D].兰州: 兰州大学.
[29]韦志刚, 朱献, 董文杰, 等, 2019.CFSv2系统对2015年11月中国一次寒潮过程及其欧亚冷空气活动的预报评估[J].高原气象, 38(4): 673-684.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2019.00014.
[30]谢韶青, 卢楚翰, 2018.近16 a来冬季欧亚大陆中纬度地区低温事件频发及其成因[J].大气科学学报, 41(3): 423-432.
[31]熊光明, 陈权亮, 朱克云, 等, 2012.平流层极涡变化与我国冬季气温、 降水的关系[J].高原气象, 31(4): 1001-1006.
[32]易明建, 2009.平流层极涡异常及其对对流层的影响研究[D].合肥: 中国科学技术大学.
[33]张恒德, 2005.极涡的活动特征与数值模拟及其对我国气候的影响[D].南京: 南京信息工程大学.
[34]张婧雯, 李栋梁, 柳艳菊, 2014.北半球极涡新特征及其对中国冬季气温的影响[J].高原气象, 33(3): 721-732.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00044.
[35]周宁芳, 贾小龙, 2018.NCEP CFSv2对北半球夏季中高纬阻塞高压的预测检验[J].高原气象, 37(2): 469-480.DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00036.
Outlines

/