Climate Extremes in a Typical Glacier-related Debris Flow Watershed of Southeast Tibet During 1979 -2018
Received date: 2022-10-09
Revised date: 2023-02-14
Online published: 2023-11-14
Heavy rainfall and high air temperature are the main factors inducing glacial debris flows.In-depth understanding of the variation of disaster-pregnant meteorological conditions of glacial debris flows in small watersheds can provide basis and basic data for early warning and disaster prevention of glacial debris flows.Based on the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) (1979 -2018), the inter-annual and intra-annual variation characteristics of rainfall, air temperature, and extreme climate index in Kada valley are analyzed using several methods, including Sen's slope, Mann-Kendall trend and mutation test, Sliding t-test, Morlet wavelet transform, coefficient of variation (CV), and precipitation concentration index (PCI).The results show that: (1) Both the average annual air temperature and the warm days showed a significant rising trend at rates of 0.05 ℃·a-1 and 1.46 d·a-1, respectively, but the inter-annual variance of the warm days was very high.Both the average annual air temperature and the warm days exhibited quasi-periods of 32 a and mid to short-term scale periods.(2) The air temperature in spring, summer, autumn and winter increased significantly at rates of 0.044 ℃·a-1, 0.039 ℃·a-1, 0.049 ℃·a-1 and 0.06 ℃·a-1, respectively.The air temperature increased significantly in all months, with March and November showing significant inter-annual fluctuations.(3) The decreasing trend of annual rainfall was not significant.Although no significant trend in extreme rainfall days was observed, it fluctuated considerably from year to year, with a sudden change occurring in 1988.Both annual rainfall and extreme rainfall days exhibited multiscale periods of 16~22 a, 8~10 a, 4~6 a, 2~5 a and 2~3 a.(4) The intra-annual distribution of rainfall is generally more balanced.The overall changing pattern of seasonal and monthly rainfall was not significant, except for a noticeable decline in rainfall during June and July, at rates of 1.44 mm·a-1 and 1.15 mm·a-1, respectively.In general, the climate in the Kada valley is transitioning from hot and humid to dry and hot.Additionally, it is in the rainy period of multiscale periodic strong amplitude centers superposition of 2~3 a and 4~6 a, as well as the high air temperature period of 8~11 a.At the same time, the warm days, extreme rainfall days, and monthly rainfall have moderate or greater variation, increasing the likelihood of extreme drought and flood events.The combination of extreme hydrothermal conditions raises the risk of glacial debris flow outbreak in the Kada valley.
Key words: climate change; extreme climate; glacial debris flow; small watershed
Hao LI , Shuang LIU , Kaiheng HU . Climate Extremes in a Typical Glacier-related Debris Flow Watershed of Southeast Tibet During 1979 -2018[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2023 , 42(6) : 1518 -1528 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2023.00014
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