Prediction of Rainstorm in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble
Received date: 2023-09-23
Revised date: 2024-01-16
Online published: 2024-01-16
To prepare for the heavy rainfall resulting from future climate change in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, this paper analyzed daily precipitation data from 687 meteorological stations in the region between 1990 and 2014, as well as simulation results from 24 global climate models (GCMs) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).The spatio-temporal characteristics and uncertainties of the mean annual rainstorm volume, rainstorm days and rainstorm intensity in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River during 2021 -2099 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios are studied.The results show: (1) Compared to the reference period of 1995 -2014, the mean annual volume, days and intensity of rainstorm in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are projected to increase and strengthen during the whole projection period of 2021 -2099 and the end of the 21st century (2080 -2099) under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The largest increase is observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The predicted direction is consistent and the certainty of the projection among models increases with higher emissions.The distribution of rainstorm volume, days and intensity during 2021 -2099 is similar under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, but differs from that of the SSP5-8.5 scenario.By the end of the 21st century, the distribution of volume and days of rainstorm is similar under the three scenarios.However, the distribution of rainstorm intensity under the SSP5-8.5 scenario differs from that under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios.(2) Relative to the reference period, the rainstorm volume in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River increases by 3.5 mm·(10a)-1, 5.4 mm·(10a)-1 and 14.7 mm·(10a)-1 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5, respectively.The rainstorm days increases by 0.045 d·(10a)-1, 0.07 d·(10a)-1 and 0.18 d·(10a)-1 under the three scenarios, respectively.The rainstorm intensity increases by 0.37 mm·d-1·(10a)-1, 0.78 mm·d-1·(10a)-1 and 1.94 mm·d-1·(10a)-1 under the three scenarios, respectively.All of the trends pass the 99% confidence test and the same-sign rate test.The period with a high level of prediction certainty is expected to occur in the late 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.(3) The analysis of the three scenarios indicates an increasing trend in the volume, days and intensity of rainstorm throughout the whole prediction period.The region of southeast Tibet has experienced the highest growth rate in terms of volume and days of rainstorms.The region with the largest increasing trend of rainstorm intensity under the SSP1-2.6 scenario is in northern Sichuan, while under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it is in northern Yunnan.(4) During the early 21st century(2021 -2040), there is no significant change in the volume, days or intensity of rainstorm in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, as compared to the reference period, under the three scenarios.While during the middle(2041 -2060)and the end of the 21st century, the volume, days and intensity of rainstorm increase significantly under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.This effect is particularly pronounced during the end period of the 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, as well as the consistency of predicted direction among modes is the highest.
Key words: the upper reaches of the Yangtze River; CMIP6; projection; rainstorm; uncertainty
Suyu ZHANG , Sixian CEN , Xin LAI , Ge ZHANG , Zhehao ZHANG , Siyuan YAO . Prediction of Rainstorm in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Based on CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2024 , 43(3) : 667 -682 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2024.00003
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