Application of Fusing Analog Method in Short-term Heavy Precipitation Forecast in Southeastern Gansu

  • Xiaoyuan HUANG ,
  • Xu LI ,
  • Mengying DU ,
  • Peilong YE ,
  • Yan LI
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  • 1. College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China
    2. Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China

Received date: 2023-12-06

  Revised date: 2024-04-15

  Online published: 2024-11-20

Abstract

Based on similar forecast method with step-by-step filter and Self-organizing map (SOM) neural network, a fusing analog forecast method is proposed.Using ECMWF model forecast products, ERA5 reanalysis data and station data, this method is used to carry out a 72-hour forecast of heavy precipitation in southeastern Gansu from 2021 to 2022, and the forecast effect is tested.The results show that the TS score of the fusing analog forecast method ranges from 4.5% to 9.1%, demonstrating a certain advantage compared to the forecast results of the ECMWF model.As the forecast lead time increases, the TS score of the heavy precipitation forecast shows a decreasing trend, with relatively higher TS scores forecasted at 08:00.Compared with the similar forecast method with step-by-step filter alone, the accuracy of the fusing analog forecast method is improved, and it can alleviate the problem of high false alarm rate to a certain extent.Specifically, the TS scores forecasted at 08:00 and 20:00 are increased by 1.31 % and 0.63 %, while the FAR is decreased by 2.39 % and 1.25 %.

Cite this article

Xiaoyuan HUANG , Xu LI , Mengying DU , Peilong YE , Yan LI . Application of Fusing Analog Method in Short-term Heavy Precipitation Forecast in Southeastern Gansu[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2025 , 44(1) : 214 -223 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2024.00059

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