Evaluation of the Ability of CMIP6 to Aimulate the Wind Speed of 10 Meters of the Arctic region
Online published: 2024-11-25
The improvement of the ability of climate model to simulate the wind speed of 10 meters near the sur‐ face in the Arctic region plays an important role in predicting the future climate change in this region. Thirty-two CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)models were selected to provide the simulation results of daily wind speed data near the surface of the Arctic region during the historical test(1979-2014),and their abilities to simulate the average wind speed near the surface of the Arctic region at 10 meters and the occurrence probability of strong winds of magnitude 6 were evaluated. Based on this,the models with excellent simulation performance (6 models),medium simulation performance (12 models) and poor simulation performance (14 models)are selected. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of average 10 m wind speed near the surface and the probability of 6-level gale in the Arctic region under different emission scenarios in the future are predicted by using the ensemble average of excellent simulation models. The results show that:(1)The observation shows that the Greenland Sea,the Norwegian Sea,the Barents Sea and the Chukchi Sea gain higher 10m average wind speed and probability of 6-level gale in the Arctic region,and they are both smaller in summer and autumn during the year in the above sea areas.(2)In historical experiments,the CMIP6 model can well simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of the average wind speed of 10 m near the surface and the probability of 6-level gale in the Arctic region,and the simulation result of the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean is the best. The 10 m average wind speed near the surface simulated by the models are generally 10%~20% higher than the observation in the Arctic region,and the probability of strong winds of magnitude 6 are generally 2%~4% higher than the observation. The simulation deviation in spring and summer are generally smaller than that in autumn and winter.(3)The variation of 10 m average wind speed near the surface and the probability of 6-level gale in the Arctic region in the 21st century simulated by the excellent group models show significant regional differences. Compared with the historical period,10 meters average wind speed generally increase in the central area and the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean,but generally decrease in the Atlantic sector and the coastal areas of the Arctic Ocean. The probability of strong winds of magnitude 6 increase in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean, but decrease significantly in the Atlantic sector. In terms of temporal variation,the wind speed increase rapidly in the high emission scenario,and the increase speed is fastest in autumn,followed by winter and summer,and slowest in spring. The probability density distribution of wind speed in the Arctic region in the future has not changed significantly compared with the historical period,and there is little difference under different emission scenarios.
WU Haoyu, HU Shuhan, DU Ruyi, DING Ruichang, ZHAO Chuanhu, HUANG Fei . Evaluation of the Ability of CMIP6 to Aimulate the Wind Speed of 10 Meters of the Arctic region [J]. Plateau Meteorology, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2024.00105
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