Improving Numerical Weather Predictions in Southwest China with Complex Terrain Using the Anomaly Integration Correction Method

Expand
  • 1. College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000GansuChina
    2. Institute of Plateau MeteorologyChina Meteorological AdministrationChengdu 610072SichuanChina
    3. Ya'an Meteorological BureauYaan 625099SichuanChina
    4. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceChengdu 610072SichuanChina
    5. Sichuan Province Meteorological Disaster Defense Technology CenterChengdu 610072SichuanChina

Online published: 2025-02-24

Abstract

Utilizing the Anomaly Numerical-correction with ObservationsANObased on historical observation data and anomaly integrationin conjunction with the ERA5 reanalysis dataa rectification test was conduct‐ ed on the forecasting products of the Southwest Center WRF-ADAS Real-time Modeling SystemSWMS in short. This study evaluated the efficiency of the ANO method in enhancing short- to medium-term weather fore‐ casts for meteorological quantities during a catastrophic regional heavy rainfall event over the complex topography from June 20 to 252019. Results revealed that the SWMS model exhibited commendable predictability in the middle and upper tropospherealthough its accuracy gradually reduced in the lower layers. After post-processing correction using the ANO methodall the predicted variables showed obvious improvements. The aver‐ age Anomaly Correlation CoefficientACCfor the 500 hPa and 700 hPa geopotential height fields within the 72-hour integration increased by a range of 0. 1 to 0. 2reaching approximately 0. 8while the 850 hPa geopotential height ACC showed a maximum enhancement of 0. 6. Concurrentlythe Root Mean Square Error RMSEfor the corrected 700 hPa and 850 hPa geopotential heights exhibited significant reductions with an average decrease of 24% and 66%respectively. The correction outcomes for temperaturespecific humidityand horizontal wind also displayed positive effectswhich reveal the efficient correcting performance of the ANO method based on historical observation data in rectifying short- to medium-term numerical forecasts of the SWMS model over complex topography.

Cite this article

CHANG Jun, ZHANG Shuwen, REN Xinglu, RAN Jinjiang . Improving Numerical Weather Predictions in Southwest China with Complex Terrain Using the Anomaly Integration Correction Method[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10. 7522/j. issn. 1000-0534. 2024. 00116

Outlines

/