Simulation and Prediction of Hydrological Element Change in the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River based on SWAT+ Model

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  • 1. Faculty of GeomaticsLanzhou Jiaotong University / National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring / Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying & MappingGansu ProvinceLanzhou 730070GansuChina
    2. National GlacierFrozen Soiland Desert Science Data Center / Key Laboratory of Ecological Security and Sustainable Development in Arid AreasNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000GansuChina
    3. College of Safety and Environmental EngineeringShandong University of Science and TechnologyQingdao 266590ShandongChina

Online published: 2025-04-11

Abstract

In the context of global warmingit is of great significance to clarify the change characteristics and trends of hydrological elements in the mountainous areas of inland river basins to ensure water resource security. In this studythe spatiotemporal variation of hydrological elements under four scenariosSSP1-2. 6SSP2-4. 5SSP3-7. 0 and SSP5-8. 5was predicted with the SWAT model and the collective average data of five global cli‐ mate models in CMIP6. The results showed that:(1The evaluation coefficient of the SWAT model was higher in the calibration periodNSE=0. 92R2=0. 93PBIAS=-7. 09%and validation periodNSE=0. 89R2=0. 91PBIAS=4. 74%),indicating that SWAT had good applicability in the simulation of runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin.2Under the four scenariosthe runoff from the mountains in the future will increase by 12. 2%8. 1%10. 4% and 19. 2% respectively compared with the base periodand the runoff will increase significantly in autumn and winter. In the near and far futurethe increase in the average total water yield in the basin is between 6. 2~25. 4 mm22. 2~35. 7 mm),and the increase in the average underground flow is 1. 6~7. 4 mm 7. 4~12. 1 mm),and the increase of each hydrological element is greater in the far future.3In terms of the spatial distribution of hydrological elementsthe spatial distribution of precipitationevapotranspirationsurface production and underground runoff increased from northwest to southeastwhile the total water yield and lateral flow were high in the middle and low in the north.4The spatial distribution pattern of the changes of each hydrological element is quite differentand the spatial distribution difference of the change of hydrological elements between different scenarios in the near future2021-2060period is relatively smalland the difference in the temporal and spatial distribution of the change in the far future2061-2100is even greater. In conclusionthe SWAT model can better describe the temporal and spatial changes of hydrological processes and hydro‐ logical elements in the mountainous areas of inland river basins.

Cite this article

ZHANG Xuan, ZHU Rui, YIN Zhenliang, CHEN Zexia, FANG Chunshuang, LI Lejie . Simulation and Prediction of Hydrological Element Change in the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River based on SWAT+ Model[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00028

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