Variability of Anticyclone Activity and Temperature Anomaly Linkages in the Siberian Region under a Scenario of Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Retreat

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  • 1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterMinistry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044JiangsuChina

    2. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and SinkChina Meteorological AdministrationECSS-CMA),Wuxi UniversityWuxi 214063JiangsuChina

    3. Sanming Meteorological BureauSanming 365000FujianChina
    4. Shanghai Meteorological Service CenterShanghai 200030China

Online published: 2025-04-11

Abstract

The variability of Arctic sea ice is closely linked to anomalous winter temperature changes over the Eurasian continentwhile the frequent activity of winter cold high-pressure systems directly influences temperature reductions in Siberia and East Asia. In the context of "Arctic amplification" and projected Arctic sea ice re‐ treat scenariosit is worth delving into how near-surface anticyclone activity in Siberia will change. This study utilizes a Mask R-CNN anticyclone objective identification algorithm based on deep learning to identify winter synoptic-scale anticyclones over the Eurasian continent. It further investigates the potential impacts and mechanisms of anomalous autumn sea ice changes on anticyclone and cold air activities under the backdrop of rapid future Arctic sea ice retreatusing data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsEC‐ MWFERA5 reanalysisthe National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNOAAOISST V2. 1 daily sea ice concentration datasetand outputs from the MIROC6 model. The results indicate that the sea ice index in the Barents-Kara SeaBKSregion declined during autumn from 1981 to 2022accompanied by significant temperature drops in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Eurasian continentparticularly in Siberiawhere anomalous accumulations of cold air mass occurredand the cold air mass carried by anticyclone activity increased. Utilizing model data from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison ProjectPAMIP),the study statistically analyzed the variability of anticyclone activity over the Eurasian continent under scenarios of reduced Arctic sea ice in the future. It was found that under conditions of sea ice reductionSiberia is one of the main regions influencing the formation and dissipation of anticyclones over the Eurasian continent. Anticyclones in this region exhibit local activity characteristicssignificantly contributing to the quasi-stationary Siberian cold high and the accumulation of cold air in the cold pool region. Temperatures increased along the northern edge of the Eurasian continent but significantly decreased at mid-latitudesaccompanied by an increase in extremely cold days across most of the Eurasian continent. Further research revealed that autumn BKS sea ice conditions can serve as a precursor factor influencing subsequent winter anticyclone activity and temperature anomalies. The sea ice conditions in this region result in a significant reduction in the meridional gradient of regional potential vorticitythereby in‐ creasing the frequency of blocking events in the upstream Eastern European Plaindirecting cold air to build up over Siberia. This favors the enhancement of anticyclone activity and the transport of cold airexacerbating the winter cold trend in East Asia.

Cite this article

XIA Ping, LU Chuhan, HUANG Dingan, CHEN Riheng, WANG Rui . Variability of Anticyclone Activity and Temperature Anomaly Linkages in the Siberian Region under a Scenario of Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Retreat[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00022

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