Analysis of the Characteristics of Non-stationary Spatio-temporal Variations of Future Temperature in the Qinghai-Xizang#br# Plateau Based on EOF-EEMD Combination

Expand
  • 1. College of Hydraulic and Environmental EngineeringChina Three Gorges UniversityYichang 443002HubeiChina
    2. Engineering Research Center of Eco-environment in Three Gorges Reservoir RegionChina Three Gorges UniversityYichang 443002HubeiChina
    3. Land-Atmosphere Interaction and its Climatic Effects GroupState Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemEnvironment and ResourcesTPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China
    4. College of Earth and Planetary SciencesUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China
    5. College of Atmospheric ScienceLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000GansuChina
    6. National Observation and Research Station for Qomolongma Special Atmospheric Processes and
    Environmental Changes
    Dingri 858200XizangChina
    7. Kathmandu Center of Research and EducationChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China
    8. China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth SciencesChinese Academy of SciencesIslamabad 45320Pakistan
    9. Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth ObservationITC),University of TwenteThe Netherlands7500 AE

Online published: 2025-05-08

Abstract

Using effective bias correction methods and transforming non-stationary data to stationary can enhance the scientific accuracy of temperature analysisallowing for a deeper understanding of its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and evolution patterns. This study utilizes the ERA5_Land near-surface2 mmonthly mean temperature observation dataset covering the period from 1970 to 2014. Initiallyit employs the Taylor diagramTaylor indexinterannual variability skill scoreand rank scoring method to evaluate and select among six climate models from the International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6CMIP6and the multi-model ensembleMMEaverage models. Subsequentlythe superior models are refined using the Del‐ ta bias correction method and the Normal distribution matching method. Finallythe study analyzes the temporal and spatial temperature variation characteristics of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 2015 to 2100 under the SSP1-2. 6SSP2-4. 5and SSP5-8. 5 scenarios. The results indicate that:(1Among the six CMIP6 models and the multi-model ensembleMMEaverage models analyzed in this studythe EC-Earth3 model demonstrates the most effective performance in simulating temperature.2When comparing the Delta bias correction results of the EC-Earth3 model with observational datathe regional averages of the coefficient of determinationR²and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficientNSEare 0. 992 and 0. 983respectively. After applying the Nor‐ mal distribution matching method for correctionthe regional average values of R² and NSE are 0. 990 and 0. 978respectively. This comparison reveals that the Delta bias correction method exhibits superior correction efficacy for the model's monthly temperature.3According to the combination of EOF-EEMDthe annual temperature of the first typical field of the three scenarios changes uniformly in the whole regionand there is a common sensitive area of temperature change under SSP1-2. 6 and SSP2-4. 5 scenariosthat isthe central region of the Qiangtang Plateau. The temperature dynamics in the second typical field reveal a gradual reverse-phase change from the upper reaches of the Zhaqu River to surrounding areas. Under the SSP1-2. 6 scenariothe plateau experiences overall cooling in the east and warming in the west. Converselyunder the SSP2-4. 5 and SSP5- 8. 5 scenariosthe plateau initially warms in the east and cools in the westfollowed by a subsequent cooling in the east and warming in the west. This study provides a reference for bias correction methods that enhance the ac‐ curate application of climate model data in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau region and offers essential foundational in‐ formation for a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of temperature changes on water resourcesecosystemsand the environment in this area.

Cite this article

ZHANG Xue, DONG Xiaohua, MA Yaoming, GONG Chengqi, HU Xueer, CHEN Ling, SU Zhongbo . Analysis of the Characteristics of Non-stationary Spatio-temporal Variations of Future Temperature in the Qinghai-Xizang#br# Plateau Based on EOF-EEMD Combination[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00006

Outlines

/