Nowcasting of Airport Low Visibility Based on Machine Learning

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  • 1. School of Atmospheric SciencesChengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225SichuanChina
    2. Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Climate Change Risk and Meteorological Disaster PreventionNanchang 330096JiangxiChina
    3. Jiangxi Meteorological ObservatoryNanchang 330096JiangxiChina

Online published: 2025-07-22

Abstract

In order to reduce the rate of flight diversion and return caused by low visibilitythis study has established a short-term and nowcasting model of low visibility using ground observation data and the upper-air and surface forecast data of the ECMWF at Jingdezhen Airport based on machine learning algorithms. Comparing the evaluation indicatorsthe results find that the XGBoost and LightGBM machine learning algorithms outperform the SVM machine learning algorithm in nowcasting of the airport low visibility. A detailed comparison of the evaluation metrics was conducted both before and after feature screening in the same machine learning algorithms. The study highlights that feature screening significantly boosts the effectiveness of both models. Further‐ morethe SHAPSHapley Additive exPlanationsmethod elucidates the contribution of each feature to the LightGBM model's output. The main conclusions are as follows:(1The machine learning models established by LightGBM and XGBoost perform well in airport low visibility forecastingwith the AUC reaching up to 0. 98and the F1_score for the prediction of current low visibility and the low visibility in the next one hour can reach up to 0. 92.2Data cleaning and feature screening is conducive to improving the prediction accuracy of the XGBoost algorithm for low visibility in the next houraccording to the principle that "feature engineering in machine learning requires features to be mutually independent". Moreover the LightGBM model with feature screening has a lower false negative rate than the LightGBM model without feature selection when forecasting the current and future one-hour low visibility. For the forecast of the current low visibilitythe LightGBM_24_0h model is the best. For the forecast of low visibility in the next one hourthe XGBoost_24_1h model is the best. And feature selection has a greater improvement on the performance of the XGBoost algorithm.3The splitting times and SHAP values are used respectively to analyze the feature importance of the LightGBM algorithm mod‐ el. It shows that under different feature importance criterianine featuresnamely the measured relative humidityair temperaturewindsea level pressure at the airportand the relative humidity at 1000 hPavertical velocity and divergence at 925 hPaand divergence at 850 hPa predicted by ECMWFare more important for the pre‐ diction of low visibility at the airport. And divergenceas an input feature of the machine learning modelcan greatly improve the performance of the machine learning model.4When explaining feature importance based on SHAP valuesthe cumulative proportion of the top ten feature importance accounts for 80%. This indicates that in the nowcasting of low visibility at Jingdezhen Airport where fog is the main factorthe LightGBM model can output prediction results according to key forecast factors. And when forecasting whether the low visibility in the next one hour will continuemore attention should be paid to the changes in 850 hPa divergence1000 hPa relative humidityairport sea level pressure and wind direction.

Cite this article

YIN Qi'e, NI Changjian, XIAO An . Nowcasting of Airport Low Visibility Based on Machine Learning[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00067

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