Spatiotemporal Analysis of Wind and Solar Resource in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1979 to 2023 

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  • 1. Department of Hydraulic EngineeringTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and EngineeringTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China
    3. Huaneng Tibet Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Development and Investment Co. Ltd. Lhasa 850000China
    4. Department of Earth System ScienceTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Online published: 2025-09-28

Abstract

The large-scale development and utilization of wind and solar power are critical for achieving power system decarbonization and "Dual Carbon"carbon peak and carbon neutralitygoals. While northern China boasts abundant wind-solar resourcesthe Yarlung Zangbo River BasinYZRBpresents a uniquely advantageous setting for large-scale renewable energy base construction. Its exceptionally rich hydropower potential pro‐ vides a vital foundation of flexible generation capacity and a vastnatural storage medium through reservoir regulationsignificantly enhancing the economic viability of integrating variable wind and solar power compared to regions reliant solely on complementary generation or artificial storage. Howeverthe inherent variabilityintermittencyand uncertainty of wind and solar power pose substantial challenges to the structural transformation of power systemsimpacting grid stability and dispatch optimization. To accurately characterize the resource potential within this strategic basinthis study conducts a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of wind and solar re‐ sources across the YZRB. This study utilizes the high-resolution near-surface meteorological forcing dataset for the Third Pole regionTPMFD),offering long-term1979-2023),high spatiotemporal resolution surface meteorological data essential for detailed assessment. Analysis reveals a distinct "higher in the westlower in the east" spatial pattern for both wind speed and solar radiation intensity across the basin. Cruciallytemporal trend analysis identifies a complextwo-phase evolution over the 45-year period1979-2023),characterized by significant trend reversals. Wind speed exhibited a pronounced declining trend from 1979 to 2009followed by a robust increasing trend from 2010 to 2023. Converselysolar radiation showed a significant increasing trend be‐ tween 1979 and 2010which reversed into a clear decreasing trend from 2011 to 2023. This non-stationarity in resource availability has profound implications for long-term energy project planning and performance modeling. Spatial analysis further identifies Lhasa CityShannan Cityand Shigatse City as possessing superior wind and solar resource endowments relative to other basin areas. These regions are thus highlighted as optimal core zones for deploying future integrated hydro-wind-solarHWScomplementary systemwhere hydropower's inherent flexibility can effectively balance wind-solar variabilitymaximizing system efficiencyreliabilityand eco‐ nomic returns. This study underscores the significant potential of the YZRB for large-scalelow-carbon energy systems based on HWS integration. Realizing this potential necessitates focused research addressing key uncertainties. Future work must prioritize:(1Advanced projection and analysis of future wind-solar resource trends under evolving climate scenarios to inform resilient infrastructure planning;(2Detailed assessment of the frequencyintensityand duration of compound wind-solar extreme eventse. g. concurrent low-wind and low sunlight periods),which represent major risks to system securityand3Development and application of sophisticated integrated optimization models for the holistic configurationschedulingand dispatch of HWS resources across the basin and their integration with the wider grid. Addressing these research imperatives is essential for unlocking the YZRB's full potential to contribute significantly to China's energy transition and global decarbonization objectives.

Cite this article

FAN Zhiyong, WU Chuandong, YANG Dawen, TANG Lihua, ZHANG Yi, YANG Kun . Spatiotemporal Analysis of Wind and Solar Resource in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1979 to 2023 [J]. Plateau Meteorology, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00079

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