Research on the Triggering and Maintenance Mechanisms of Convective Heavy Rainfall in Northern Xinjiang under the Background of the Central Asian Vortex
Online published: 2025-10-20
To solve the difficult problem of forecasting the location and time of heavy rain under the background of Central Asian low vortex. using conventional observation data,satellite,radar and ERA5 0. 25°×0. 25° reanalysis data,to analyze the mesoscale characteristics and atmospheric instability,and reveal the convection trigger‐ ing and maintenance mechanisms from June 30 to July 3,2024,and find that there are two rainstorm centers in this weather event,whose triggering mechanisms are significantly different. The rainstorm in Bozhou is a shortterm heavy rainfall caused by strong convection. It is affected by the eastward movement of short-wave disturbances split from the bottom of the Central Asian trough,the northward movement of warm moist air carried by southwest winds in the middle layer,and the eastward infiltration of cold air guided by east winds in the lower layer. Warm moist air climbs along the cold cushion,and there is a convectively unstable layer in the upper air of Bozhou. Surface mesoscale convergence lines are the main triggering factors,and middle γ scale convective systems continue to generate and merge to enhance middle β scale convective systems to produce heavy rainfall, and the convection has a high-quality heart structure. The rainstorm of Tianshan Mountain area and its northern slope are characterized by mixed rainfall,with long-lasting precipitation. The Central Asian trough weakens and moves eastward,while the southwest airflow at the middle level guides warm and humid air northward. At the same time,the northwest jet stream at the lower level brings cold air southward,leading to the convergence of cold and warm air. Before and in the early stages of precipitation,the atmosphere is affected by convective instability,which accumulates unstable energy for the generation of precipitation. In the later stages,the atmosphere shifts to conditional symmetric instability,which maintains and enhances precipitation. The frontogenesis of cold fronts in the middle and lower layers of the troposphere is the main triggering factor of heavy rainfall. The up‐ ward movement of the secondary circulation of the front and the occurrence and development of convection are closely related,and the front disturbance and cumulus convection have a positive feedback effect. Multiple medium β scale convection systems move eastward one after another to produce heavy rainfall,and the convection has a low quality center and is warm cloud precipitation. This study reveals the triggering and maintenance mechanisms of short-term severe convective rainstorms and mixed rainstorms in northern Xinjiang under the back‐ ground of the Central Asian low vortex by refining their types,providing key references for the refined forecasting of rainstorms in northern Xinjiang.
WEI Juanjuan, Liu Jia, PAN Ning, WAN Yu . Research on the Triggering and Maintenance Mechanisms of Convective Heavy Rainfall in Northern Xinjiang under the Background of the Central Asian Vortex [J]. Plateau Meteorology, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00083
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