A Machine Learning Method for Maximum Temperature Bias Correction in Complex Terrain

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  • 1. Sichuan Meteorological ObservatoryChengdu610072SichuanChina
    2. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceChengdu610072SichuanChina

Online published: 2025-11-10

Abstract

To enhance the prediction accuracy of the 2-meter maximum temperature in complex terrain areasthis study developed a gradient modeling approach based on the LightGBMLight Gradient Boosting MachineLGBalgorithmapplied to the Sichuan Basin and its surrounding regions. By selecting and and analyzing multiple meteorological and topographic factorsan optimized model was constructed. The results demonstrate that: (1From January to June 2024the LightGBM model reduced the mean absolute error by 2. 48 ℃ and improved the forecast accuracy by 36. 97% compared to EC model. Among themthe improvement effect of the west Sichuan Plateau and Panxi area was the most significantthe accuracy rate increased by 67. 2% and 57. 5%respectively.2Compared with the existing objective forecast products SPCO and SCMOCthe LightGBM model im‐ proved prediction accuracy by 5. 1% and 10. 3%respectively. Particularly in the Panxi area and the Sichuan Ba‐ sinthe accuracy at individual stations improved by up to 17. 6% and 23. 4%respectively.3The LightGBM model reduced the mean absolute error by 2. 05~2. 78 ℃and increased the accuracy by 31. 1%~41. 0%with the most notable enhancement occurring in April.4The LightGBM model exhibits strong scalability. Future work could further improve temperature prediction across Sichuan Province and other regions by incorporating time-lag effectsspatial neighborhood characteristicsand combining zoning modeling and multi-model integration.

Cite this article

ZHOU Qiuxue, FENG Liangmin, CHEN Chaoping, HU Di . A Machine Learning Method for Maximum Temperature Bias Correction in Complex Terrain[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00027

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