Research on Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts by Integrating Terrain Features and Neural Networks 

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  • 1. Hunan Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and ReductionChangsha 410118HunanChina
    2. Hunan Meteorological ObservatoryChangsha 410118HunanChina
    3. Dongting Lake National Climatic ObservatoryChina Meteorological AdministrationYueyang 414000HunanChina
    4. Key Laboratory of High Impact WeatherspecialChina Meteorological AdministrationChangsha 410118HunanChina
    5. Xiangxi Meteorological BureauJiShou 416000HunanChina
    6. China Meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory/Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning ResearchInstitute of Heavy RainChina Meteorological AdministrationWuhan 430205HubeiChina

Online published: 2026-01-26

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of daily maximumTmaxand minimumTmintemperatures is essential for meteorological operationalas enhanced precision safeguards socioeconomic stability in agriculturetransportation and public health. To address pronounced systematic biases in numerical weather prediction models over complex terrain-particularly regions with heterogeneous underlying surfaces-this study develops an advanced deep learning framework integrating geographic feature clustering. The study focuses on China’s Hunan Provincecharacterized by a distinctive concave-shapedthree-tiered topography encompassing mountainshillsbasinsand plains. A baseline convolutional neural networkCNNwas constructed using ECMWF forecast fieldshigh-resolution CLDASChina Land Data Assimilation Systemreanalysis dataand multi-dimensional geographic variableselevationslopeaspectterrain roughness index. Three comparative experiments rigorously evaluated terrain-processing efficacyMethod 1 K-means clustered geographic variables delineating topographic regimes),Method 2Conventionally standardized non-clustered geographic variables),and Method 3Geographic variable exclusion as terrain-agnostic control. Validation confirmed Method 1's superiorityachieving 24- hour mean absolute errorMAEreductions of 4. 7% for Tmax and 9. 4% for Tmin relative to Method 3while im‐ proving forecast skill by 2. 5%Tmaxand 1. 4%Tmincompared to Method 2. These statistically significant gains validate the benefits of explicit terrain feature clustering. Building on this approachthe CNN-Terrain Cor‐ rectionCNN-TCmodel was developed for 72-hour Tmax/Tmin predictions. CNN-TC framework delivers transformative improvements. Versus ECMWF outputsTmax MAE decreased by 23. 5%~37. 3% and Tmin MAE by 20. 8%~26. 9% across 24~72 hour lead times. Compared to operational SCMOC productserrors reduced 18. 7%~27. 6%Tmaxand 26. 8%~32. 3%Tmin. Criticallythe model compresses spatial error dispersionnarrowing 24-hour MAE ranges from 1. 2~5. 8 ℃/0. 8~5. 9 ℃ECMWFto a stable 0. 9~1. 7 ℃/0. 8~1. 7 ℃ for T max/Tmin-demonstrating breakthrough operational stability. Monthly verification confirmed persistent superioritywith T max MAE reductions of 5. 6%~59. 1% and Tmin improvements of 6. 3% to 47. 8% relative to ECMWF. During the November 2022 cold-air outbreakthe model captured intricate spatiotemporal cooling patternsoutperforming ECMWF and SCMOC with over 30% error reductionunderscoring its capability in extreme weather. This study verifies that deep learning combined with terrain clustering effectively mitigates systematic biases over complex terrain. The CNN-TC framework establishes a robust solution for refined meteorological services in mountainous regions. Cross-regional implementation requires localized hyperparameter optimization and cluster retraining to address spatial heterogeneity in climate regimes and surface properties.

Cite this article

LU Shu, XU Lin, GU Xue, ZHOU Yue, DAI Zejun, TAO Yaqing . Research on Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature Forecasts by Integrating Terrain Features and Neural Networks [J]. Plateau Meteorology, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00081

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