The Impact of Thinning Method in Radar Radial Wind Assimilation on Heavy Rainfall Forecasting

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  • 1. Tianjin Key Laboratory for Oceanic MeteorologyTianjin 300074China
    2. Tianjin Institute of Meteorological ScienceTianjin 300074China
    3. Tianjin Meteorological ObservatoryTianjin 300074China

Online published: 2026-01-26

Abstract

Assimilation of thinned radar radial wind data can help improve the model's forecasting capability for short-term precipitation. Howeverthe thinning method affects the distribution characteristics of the radar radial wind super-observationsSOs),which in turn affects the assimilation and prediction results. This study investigates the impact of radar radial wind thinning method on rainfall forecasting through sensitive experiments. Based on a heavy rain event in North Chinatwo experimental groups were conductedemploying radar radial wind SOs with varying grid resolutionsby altering radial spacing or azimuthal interval. The results show that changing the radial spacing or azimuthal interval of super-observation box alters the extremes of the SOs and their locationsthereby influencing both the intensity and position of the jet stream. The radial spacing additionally affects the jet height by influencing the altitude at which the extremes of the SOs occurand it has a relatively significant impact on the quantity of data obtained and the analysis error. The assimilation of radial wind SOs with different grid resolution similarly adjusts the wind fieldwhich can increase the cyclone of the shear line in central and southern Hebei and the southerly component of the low-level jet in central Shandong. The grid resolution of the SOs mainly affects the curvature of the cyclonic shear and the intensity of the southerly jet. For precipitation forecastingassimilation radar radial wind SOs can improve the overall performance of precipitation fore‐ casts for the first 6 h of the modelparticularly in capturing heavy precipitation events exceeding 25 mm. Mean‐ whileit provides better scores for 24 h forecasts of light and moderate rainfall and can restrain some false precipitation forecasts. When a higher resolution of radial wind SOs is adoptedthe forecasting performance for heavy precipitation within 12 h improves significantly. The threat scorefalse alarm ratioand probability of detection PODof precipitation are more sensitive to changes in radial spacing during thinningwhile variations in azimuthal interval have a relatively more pronounced impact on forecasting bias.

Cite this article

LI Yinghua, QIU Xiaobin, WANG Ying, DONG Qiruo, WANG Xuelian, LIU Lili . The Impact of Thinning Method in Radar Radial Wind Assimilation on Heavy Rainfall Forecasting[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 0 : 1 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2025.00082

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