Please wait a minute...
高级检索
高原气象  2016, Vol. 35 Issue (4): 934-945    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00157
论文     
春季南支槽的年代际变化及其与降水、大气环流的关系
张永莉1, 范广洲1,2, 朱克云1, 袁东升1, 华维1,2, 王炳赟1,3
1. 成都信息工程大学 大气科学学院/高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室, 成都 610225;
2. 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心, 南京 210044;
3. 南京信息工程大学 大气物理学院, 南京 210044
Interdecadal Variation of Springtime Southern Branch Trough and Its Relationship with Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation
ZHANG Yongli1, FAN Guangzhou1,2, ZHU Keyun1, YUAN Dongsheng1, HUA Wei1,2, WANG Bingyun1,3
1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610225, China;
2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;
3. School of Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
 全文: PDF(5999 KB)   HTML
摘要:

由于春季青藏高原动力作用在其南侧形成南支槽,南支槽年代际变化的异常,可能与中国降水异常有密切的关系。利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料和中国596个测站月降水资料,采用突变检验、合成分析等方法,分析了1950-2014年春季南支槽的强度和东、西位置的年代际变化特征,探讨了两者与同期中国降水年代际异常及环流背景场的关系。结果表明:春季南支槽的强度和位置都具有显著的年代际变化特征,南支槽强度在20世纪70年代末期有一次强弱突变过程,位置在90年代初期发生了明显的由东向西移动的转折,分别选取强度和位置突变前后的时间段进行分析,得到春季南支槽强度突变前(后),南支槽越强(弱),位置突变前(后),南支槽越偏东(西),会出现黄河流域、长江中下游及其以北和以南的大部分地区降水偏多(少),而青藏高原及其周围地区降水偏少(多)的现象,从两者突变前后与大气环流、垂直运动和水汽条件的显著关系能够合理地解释突变前后降水差异的原因。在此基础上,总结了春季南支槽年代际尺度与中国降水、大气环流的概念模型,可为中国春季的气候变化和气候预测提供更多的科学依据。

关键词: 春季南支槽年代际变化突变降水大气环流    
Abstract:

The Springtime Southern Branch Trough (SSBT) is generated by the dynamic forcing of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, which own abnormal interdecadal variability, and which may be closely related to the anomaly of precipitation in China. The intensity and east/west position of the SSBT and the pertinence between these are analyzed and the corresponding interdecadal variation of precipitation and atmospheric circulation in China, whose interdecadal variation in last 65 years are discussed as well, using the monthly average of reanalyzed data from NCEP/NCAR, combined with monthly precipitation data of 596 observation stations provided, and by employing the methods such as mutation inspection, composition analysis, etc. The results of the analysis indicate that the intensity and position of SSBT is characterized by interdecadal variability, its intensity have a weak mutation process in the late 1970s, and its position was sudden changed from east to west in the early 1990s. And the mutation before(after) the intensity of SSBT is, the stronger (weaker) the SSBT is, while the mutation before(after) the position is, the easter (wester) the SSBT leans, and the precipitation of the Yellow River basin, the middle and lower parts of the Yangtze River and its northern/southern areas increases (decreases), while it apparently drops (rises) in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surrounding area, by using before and after the period of the intensity and position of SSBT. Besides, the relationship between mutation before/after the period of intensity/position and atmospheric circulation, vertical movement, water vapor is also very significant, which explains the reason for the difference of precipitation in China. Then on the base of these, the concept frame of interdecadal relationship with precipitation and atmospheric circulation in SSBT is summarized. These results are helpful to better provide more scientific basis for how and why the spring climate change and climate prediction of China.

Key words: Springtime southern branch trough    Interdecadal variation    Mutation    Precipitation    Atmospheric circulation
收稿日期: 2014-12-11 出版日期: 2016-08-24
:  P465  
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目(91537214,41275079,41305077,41405069,41505078);成都信息工程大学校选项目(CRF201306);成都信息工程大学中青年学术带头人科研基金(J201516,J201518)

通讯作者: 范广洲.E-mail:fgz@cuit.edu.cn     E-mail: fgz@cuit.edu.cn
作者简介: 张永莉(1983-),女,河南温县人,讲师,主要从事气候变化及其数值模拟研究.E-mail:zhyli@cuit.edu.cn
服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章  
张永莉
范广洲
朱克云
袁东升
华维
王炳赟

引用本文:

张永莉, 范广洲, 朱克云, 袁东升, 华维, 王炳赟. 春季南支槽的年代际变化及其与降水、大气环流的关系[J]. 高原气象, 2016, 35(4): 934-945.

ZHANG Yongli, FAN Guangzhou, ZHU Keyun, YUAN Dongsheng, HUA Wei, WANG Bingyun. Interdecadal Variation of Springtime Southern Branch Trough and Its Relationship with Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation. PLATEAU METEOROLOGY, 2016, 35(4): 934-945.

链接本文:

http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00157        http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/Y2016/V35/I4/934

Chang C P, Zhang Y S, Li T.2000.Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical Pacific SSTs.Part II:Meridional structure of the monsoon[J].J Climate, 13(24):4326-4340.

Deser C, Blackmon M L.1993.Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic ocean during winter:1900-1989[J].J Climate, 6(9):1743-1753.

Fan G Z, Zhang Y L, Wang B Y, et al.2015.Interannual variability of the wintertime northern branch high ridge in the subtropical westerlies and its relationship with winter climate in China[J].J Meteor Res, 29(5):703-719.

Scott P A, Tett S F B.1998.Scale-dependence detection of climate change[J].J Climate, 11(12):3283-3294.

Wang B, Huang F, Wu Z W.et al.2009.Multi-scale climate variability of the South China Sea monsoon:A review[J].Dyn Atmos Oceans, 47(l-3):15-37.

Wang H, Xue F, Zhou G.2002.The spring monsoon in South China and its relationship to large scale circulation features[J].Adv Atmos Sci, 19(4):651-664.

Wu Z W, Li J P, Jiang Z H, et al.2012.Modulation of the Tibetan Plateau snow cover on the ENSO teleconnections:From the East Asian summer monsoon precipitation[J].J Climate, 25(7):2481-2489.

Xin X G, Yu R C, Zhou T J, et al.2006.Drought in late spring of South China in recent decades[J].J Climate, 19(13):3197-3206.

Xu J J, Zhu Q G.1999.The numerical study of the effect of ENSO and its interdecadal variation on the global and Asian monsoon precipitation[J].Acta Meteor Sinica, 57(3):301-315.

Yang F L, Lau K M.2004.Trend and variability of China precipitation in spring and summer: Linkage to sea-surface temperatures[J].Int J Climatol, 24(13):1625-1644.

Zhang Y, Wallace J M, Battisti D S.1997.ENSO-like interdecadal variability:1900-1993[J].J Climate, 10:1004-1020.

Zhao Z, Li Q, Zhang Z, et al.2000.Relationships between ENSO and climate change in China and predictions of ENSO[J].World Resource Review, 12(2):269-279.

曾红玲, 高新全, 戴新刚.2002.近20年全球冬、夏季海平面气压场和500 hPa高度场年代际变化特征分析[J].高原气象, 21(1):67-73.Zeng Hongling, Gao Xinquan, Dai Xingang.2002.Analyses on interdecadal change characteristics of global winter and summer sea surface pressure field and 500 hPa height field in recent twenty years[J].Plateau Meteor, 21(1):67-73.

丁一汇.2005.高等天气学[M].第2版.北京:气象出版社.Ding Yihui.2005.Advanced synoptic meteorology[M].version 2.Beijing:China Meteorological Press.

段旭, 陶云, 许美玲, 等.2012.西风带南支槽对云南天气的影响[J].高原气象, 31(4):1059-1065.Duan Xu, Tao Yun, Xu Meiling, et al.2012.Influence of south branch of westerlies on weather of Yunnan Province[J].Plateau Meteor, 31(4):1059-1065.

黄荣辉, 徐予红, 周连童.1999.我国夏季降水的年代际变化及华北干旱化趋势[J].高原气象, 18(4):465-476.Huang Ronghui, Xu Yuhong, Zhou Liantong.1999.The interannual variation of summer precipitation in China and the drought trend in North China[J].Plateau Meteor, 18(4):465-476.

黄燕燕, 钱永甫.2004.长江流域、华北降水特征与南亚高压的关系分析[J].高原气象, 23(1):68-74.Huang Yanyan, Qian Yongfu.2004.Relationship between South Asian High and characteristic of precipitation in mid- and lower-reaches of Yangtze River and North China[J].Plateau Meteor, 23(1):68-74.

姜大膀, 王会军.2005.20世纪后期东亚夏季风年代际减弱的自然属性[J].科学通报, 50(17):2256-2262.Jiang Dabang, Wang Huijun.2005.Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 20th century[J].Chinese Sci Bull, 50(17):2256-2262.

李坚辉, 谢巨伦, 吴阳.2000.3-5月粤西地区南支槽降水分析[J].广东气象, 1:5-14.Li Jianhui, Xie Julun, Wu Yang.2000.Analysis of south branch of precipitation from March to May in west Guangdong[J].Meteor Guangdong, 1:5-14.

刘丽, 曹杰, 何大明, 等.2011.中国低纬高原汛期强降水事件的年代际变化及其成因研究[J].大气科学, 35(3):435-443.Liu Li, Cao Jie, He Daming, et al.2011.The interdecadal variability of heavy rainfall events in flood season over low-latitude highlands of China and associated causes[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci, 35(3):435-443.

秦剑, 琚建华, 解明恩, 等.1997.低纬高原天气气候[M].北京:气象出版社.Qin Jian, Ju Jianhua, Xie Ming'en, et al.1997.Weather & Climate over Low Latitude Plateau[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.

任宏利, 张培群, 李维京, 等.2004.中国西北东部地区春季降水及其水汽输送特征[J].气象学报, 62(3):365-374.Ren Hongli, Zhang Peiqun, Li Weijing, et al.2004.Characteristics of precipitation and water vapor transport during springtime in the eastern Northwest China[J].Acta Meteor Sinica, 62(3):365-374.

宋燕, 张菁, 李智才, 等.2011.青藏高原冬季积雪年代际变化及对中国夏季降水的影响[J].高原气象, 30(4):843-851.Song Yan, Zhang Jing, Li Zhicai, et al.2011.Interdecadal change of winter snow depth on Tibetan Plateau and its effect on summer precipitation in China[J].Plateau Meteor, 30(4):843-851.

索渺清, 丁一汇.2009.冬半年副热带南支西风槽结构和演变特征研究[J].大气科学, 33(3):425-442.Suo Miaoqing, Ding Yihui.2009.The structures and evolutions of the wintertime southern branch trough in the subtropical westerlies[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci, 33(3):425-442.

陶云, 黄玮, 郑建萌, 等.2014.云南冬季降水的演变特征及成因分析[J].高原气象, 33(1):130-139.Tao Yun, Huang Wei, Zheng Jianmeng, et al.2014.Evolutive features and its causes of the wintertime precipitation in Yunnan Province[J].Plateau Meteor, 33(1):130-139.

万日金, 吴国雄.2008.江南春雨的时空分布[J].气象学报, 66(3):310-319.Wan Rijin, Wu Guoxiong.2008.Temporal and spatial distribution of the spring persistent rains over southeastern China[J].Acta Meteor Sinica, 66(3):310-319.

魏凤英.2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].第2版.北京:气象出版社.Wei Fengying.2007.Modern climatic statistical diagnosis and prediction[M].Version 2.Beijing:China Meteorological Press.

谢清霞, 范广洲, 周定文, 等.2012.夏季青藏高原低压的年际和年代际变化及其与我国降水的关系[J].高原气象, 31(6):1503-1510.Xie Qingxia, Fan Guangzhou, Zhou Dingwen, et al.2012.Interannual and interdecadal changes of summer low over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its relationship to precipitation in China[J].Plateau Meteor, 31(6):1503-1510.

杨小波, 杨淑群, 马振峰.2014.夏季东亚副热带西风急流位置对川渝地区降水的影响[J].高原气象, 33(2):384-393.Yang Xiaobo, Yang Shuqun, Ma Zhenfeng.2014.Influence of the position of East Asian subtropical westerly jet in summer on precipitation over Sichuan-Chongqing region[J].Plateau Meteor, 33(2):384-393.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00034.

宇如聪, 周天军, 李建, 等.2008.中国东部气候年代际变化三维特征的研究进展[J].大气科学, 32:893-905.Yu Rucong, Zhou Tianjun, Li Jian, et al.2008.Progress in the studies of three-dimensional structure of interdecadal climate change over eastern China[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci, 32(4):893-905.

张洁, 周天军, 宇如聪, 等.2009.中国春季典型降水异常及相联系的大气水汽输送[J].大气科学, 33(1):121-134.Zhang Jie, Zhou Tianjun, Yu Rucong, et al.2009.Atmospheric water vapor transport and corresponding typical anomalous spring rainfall patterns in China[J].Chinese J Atmos Sci, 33(1):121-134.

张永莉, 范广洲, 周定文, 等.2012.冬半年南支槽的气候特征分析[J].成都信息工程学院学报, 27(2):196-201.Zhang Yongli, Fan Guangzhou, Zhou Dingwen, et al.2012.The climate characteristics analysis of the wintertime southern branch trough[J].Journal Chengdu University of Information Technology, 27(2):196-201.

张永莉, 范广洲, 周定文, 等.2014.春季南支槽变化特征及其与降水和大气环流的关系[J].高原气象, 33(1):97-105.Zhang Yongli, Fan Guangzhou, Zhou Dingwen, et al.2014.Variation of springtime southern branch trough and its relationship with precipitation and atmospheric circulation[J].Plateau Meteor, 33(1):97-105.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.100-0534.2012.00179.

赵瑞霞, 张宏, 吴国雄, 等.2012.中国东部初春水分循环季节推进过程的年代际突变[J].中国科学:地球科学, 42(3):434-446.Zhao Ruixia, Zhang Hong, Wu Guoxiong, et al.2012.Decadal variations in the season advancement of spring water cycle over Eastern China[J].Sci China:Earth Sci, 42(3):434-446.

郑建萌, 张万诚, 马涛, 等.2014.云南极端干旱和多雨年5月异常环流的合成特征[J].高原气象, 33(4):916-924.Zheng Jianmeng, Zhang Wancheng, Ma Tao, et al.2014.Composite characteristics of the abnormal circulation in May between extreme drought years and rainy years of Yunnan[J].Plateau Meteor, 33(4):916-924.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00029.

周利敏, 陈海山, 彭丽霞, 等.2016.青藏高原冬春雪深年代际变化与南亚高压可能联系[J].高原气象, 35(1):13-23.Zhou Limin, Chen Haishan, Peng Lixia, et al.2016.Possible connection between interdecadal variations of snow depth in winter and spring over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and South Asia High in summer[J].Plateau Meteor, 35(1):13-23.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00152.

周连童, 黄荣辉.2006.我国华北地区春季降水的年代际变化特征及其可能成因的探讨[J].气候与环境研究, 11(4):441-450.Zhou Liantong, Huang Ronghui.2006.Characteristics of interdecadal variability of spring precipitation in North China and its possible cause[J].Climatic Environ Res, 11(4):441-450.

朱玲, 左洪超, 李强, 等.2010.夏季南亚高压的气候变化特征及其对中国东部降水的影响[J].高原气象, 29(3):671-679.Zhu Ling, Zuo Hongchao, Li Qing, et al.2010.Characteristics of climate change of South Asia high in summer and its impact on precipitation in Eastern China[J].Plateau Meteor, 29(3):671-679.

朱乾根, 林锦瑞.1981.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社.Zhu Qiangen, Lin Jinrui.1981.Principles and Methods of Synoptic Meteorology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press.

朱玉祥, 丁一汇, 徐怀刚.2007.青藏高原大气热源和冬春积雪与中国东部降水的年代际变化关系[J].气象学报, 65(6):946-958.Zhu Yuxiang, Ding Yihui, Xu Huaigang.2007.The decadal relationship between atmospheric heat source of winter and spring snow over Tibetan Plateau and rainfall in East China[J].Acta Meteor Sinica, 65(6):946-958.

朱志伟, 何金海, 钟珊珊, 等.2013.春夏东亚大气环流年代际转折的影响及其可能机理[J].气象学报, 71(3):440-451.Zhu Zhiwei, He Jinhai, Zhong Shanshan, et al.2013.The climatic effect of the East Asian atmospheric circulation in spring and summer and its possible causes[J].Acta Meteor Sinica, 71(3):440-451.

[1] 池再香, 胡跃文, 夏阳, 胡祖恒, 杜正静, 严锐. 云贵高原东部两次典型气象干旱年汛期环流特征对比[J]. 高原气象, 2019, 38(3): 528-538.
[2] 朱丽, 刘蓉, 王欣, 王作亮, 文军, 赵阳, 谢琰, 张堂堂. 基于FLEXPART模式对黄河源区盛夏降水异常的水汽源地及输送特征研究[J]. 高原气象, 2019, 38(3): 484-496.
[3] 王梦晓, 王瑞, 傅云飞. 利用TRMM PR和IGRA探测分析的拉萨降水云内大气温湿廓线特征[J]. 高原气象, 2019, 38(3): 539-551.
[4] 韩林君, 白爱娟. 2004-2017年夏半年西南涡在四川盆地形成降水的特征分析[J]. 高原气象, 2019, 38(3): 552-562.
[5] 蒋慧敏, 刘春云, 贾健, 赵德龙, 冯静洁. 新疆夏季对流性降水时空分布特征及成因分析[J]. 高原气象, 2019, 38(2): 340-348.
[6] 舒建川, 蒋兴文, 黄小梅, 伍清. 中国西南夏季降水预测的统计降尺度建模分析[J]. 高原气象, 2019, 38(2): 349-358.
[7] 潘欣, 尹义星, 王小军. 1960-2014年淮河流域极端降水发生时间的时空特征[J]. 高原气象, 2019, 38(2): 377-385.
[8] 刘江涛, 徐宗学, 赵焕, 何璟嫕. 不同降水卫星数据反演降水量精度评价——以雅鲁藏布江流域为例[J]. 高原气象, 2019, 38(2): 386-396.
[9] 刘恬, 高晓清, 谭桂容, 范艺媛, 惠小英. 中国江淮地区夏季强降水事件的统计分析[J]. 高原气象, 2019, 38(1): 136-142.
[10] 胡梦玲, 游庆龙. 青藏高原南侧经圈环流变化特征及其对降水影响分析[J]. 高原气象, 2019, 38(1): 14-28.
[11] 马佳宁, 高艳红. 近50年黄河上游流域年均降水与极端降水变化分析[J]. 高原气象, 2019, 38(1): 124-135.
[12] 刘田, 阳坤, 秦军, 田富强. 青藏高原中、东部气象站降水资料时间序列的构建与应用[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(6): 1449-1457.
[13] 许洁, 马耀明, 孙方林, 马伟强. 湖泊和上风向地形对纳木错地区秋季降水影响[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(6): 1535-1543.
[14] 张秋晨, 王俊, 李雪. 地基微波辐射计资料在对流云降水前的变化特征初探[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(6): 1578-1589.
[15] 岳治国, 梁谷. 陕西渭北一次降雹过程的粒子谱特征分析[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(6): 1716-1724.
img

QQ群聊

img

官方微信