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高原气象  2018, Vol. 37 Issue (3): 815-825    DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00065
论文     
TRIGRS模型预测降雨型浅层滑坡的应用性评价
徐沅鑫1,2, 郭海燕1,2, 马振峰1,2
1. 四川省气候中心, 四川 成都 610072;
2. 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 四川 成都 610072
Application of TRIGRS Model on Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides Forecasting
XU Yuanxin1,2, GUO Haiyan1,2, MA Zhengfeng1,2
1. Sichuan Climate Center, Chengdu 610072, Sichuan, China;
2. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, Sichuan, China
 全文: PDF 
摘要: 应用基于栅格的瞬态降水入渗边坡稳定性模型TRIGRS(Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability Model),模拟四川省广元市2010年“7·23”特大暴雨过程对边坡稳定性的影响,探讨模型适用性。结合实际滑坡发生情况,检验广元市不同区域斜坡稳定性变化对降水的响应。为增加模拟过程的可靠度,采用地形指数推算土壤厚度及初始入渗率,配合中国1∶100万土壤及岩性分布图将研究区域分为3个分区,基于已有研究确定模拟所需水土参数。将研究分析所得的滑坡高危区域与实际发生滑坡的区域进行对比,结果显示,坡度较大的陡峭区域出现少量降雨失稳概率即出现明显上升,而坡度较缓区域需经历较长时间降水或短时较大降水,失稳概率才会有明显的升高。模拟结果与“7·23”降水过程中实际发生滑坡区域较为吻合。模型在较为陡峭的山地区域应用良好,在坡度较为平缓,人为干扰因素较多的城市区域存在一定误差。
关键词: 浅层滑坡短时强降水瞬态入渗模型边坡稳定性安全系数    
Abstract: The utility of Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability Model (TRIGRS) in combination with the rainfall distribution data estimates for shallow, rainfall-induced landslides forecasting and response of rainfall are examined through model simulations of July 23th, 2010 heavy rainstorm event in Sichuan, Guangyuan. The target domain is divided into three physical property zones according to the distinct soil sediment concentration. The topographic indices of TOPMODEL (Topography based Hydrological model) are applied to calculate the soil thickness distribution and steady, pre-storm infiltration rate of the study area. Assumptions based on existing studies are used to estimate the simulation parameters. The cohesion and fraction angle values are taken based on actual physical conditions of each zone. The inputs of TRIGRS model includes the digital elevation model (DEM), slope angle distribution, soil thickness distribution and flow direction distribution of the study area, and time-varying rainfall. Combined with the simulation parameters, the TRIGRS model computed transient pore-pressure changes and attendant changes in the factor of safety (FS) due to rainfall infiltration. The every 6 h slope-instability grids given by model results matched the every 6 h rainfall accumulation distribution, consistent with the actual landslide records, indicates that the preliminary assessment of slope-stability is available over large areas. The quantitative indices and results of receiver operating characteristic of the simulation results indicated that the way of model simulating of the study area was valid for shallow landslide forecasting. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, more than 71.1% consistency between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of the input data. The simulation results has reasonable consistency despite some shallow landslides located in hilly area. Based on different types of rainfall forecasting products, the TRIGRS model computed the slope stability variability of target area, enabled the early warning of rainfall-induced landslides. The simulation results also showed that the slope-instability of the mountain area with larger slope degrees tended to increase with a smaller rainfall, region with smaller slope degrees endured heavier rainfall, relatively. The success index of mountain area reaches 86.67% while the success index of the hilly area is only 53.33%, yet the error index is also high in mountain area. The results indicates that the availability of TRIGRS model is impacted by the approximation of the initial topographic conditions of the target area with the infinite slope assumption. Meanwhile, the level of urbanization also generated biases in model simulation results, since the application to areas with marked soil anisotropy or heterogeneity in hydrologic properties might cause errors in the solutions.
Key words: Shallow landslides    heavy rainstorm    TRIGRS model    slope-stability    factor of safety
收稿日期: 2017-05-19 出版日期: 2018-06-24
ZTFLH:  P429  
基金资助: 四川省科技支撑计划(15ZC0098);高原与盆地旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室项目
通讯作者: 马振峰(1961),男,内蒙古自治区四子王旗人,研究员,主要从事气候预测,气候变化及生态环境研究.E-mail:mzf616@aliyun.com     E-mail: mzf616@aliyun.com
作者简介: 徐沅鑫(1988),女,贵州贵阳人,硕士研究生,主要从事气候应用研究.E-mail:xuyuanxin0710@gmail.com
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引用本文:

徐沅鑫, 郭海燕, 马振峰. TRIGRS模型预测降雨型浅层滑坡的应用性评价[J]. 高原气象, 2018, 37(3): 815-825.

XU Yuanxin, GUO Haiyan, MA Zhengfeng. Application of TRIGRS Model on Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides Forecasting. Plateau Meteorology, 2018, 37(3): 815-825.

链接本文:

http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00065        http://www.gyqx.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V37/I3/815

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