基于区域气候模式未来气候变化研究综述

张磊;王春燕;潘小多

PDF(541 KB)
高原气象
高原气象 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (5) : 1440-1448. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00018
综述

基于区域气候模式未来气候变化研究综述

  • 张磊;王春燕;潘小多
作者信息 +

A Review of Future Climate Change Based on Regional Climate Models

  • ZHANG Lei;WANG Chunyan;PAN Xiaoduo
Author information +
History +

摘要

随着全球气候变化愈加剧烈，区域气候的差异化特征越来越明显，单单利用全球气候模式对区域气候进行研究已经不能满足时空尺度的要求。由于区域气候模式具有更高的空间分辨率等优势，使用区域气候模式能够有效解决这一问题，目前区域气候模式已在全球范围内得到广泛应用。本文简述了区域气候模式发展历程、最新研究进展以及全球主流的动力降尺度区域模式，归纳了气候情景发展；分别从气温和降水两方面着重总结了区域气候模式在全球不同区域不同情景应用情况，分析了未来全球不同区域气候变化趋势，尽管不同研究者所使用模式存在差异，对未来降水预估不尽相同，区域性比较明显，但几乎所有研究一致认为未来全球仍将经历一个持续增暖过程。文章最后对区域气候模式模拟过程中存在的问题进行了概述并对未来区域气候模式发展方向进行了展望，给出中国区域气候模式未来发展方向。

Abstract

Regional climate differentiation is becoming more and more obvious with global climate change, regional climate tends to be extreme. Droughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, snow, super typhoons and other extreme weather events that have brought huge losses all over the world every year are very frequent across the global. Research on small-scale regional climate using the global climate models can't meet the requirements of spatial scale, temporal scale, the regional scale assessment of climate change and adaptation research. The global climate model reproduce climatic characteristics from large scale and it can't finely show the local information at different elevations. A full understanding of the inter-regional climate differences is very important for a more accurate prediction of future climate change. As the regional climate models have a more complete physical mechanism and higher spatial resolution, it has made a great deal of improvement over the global climate model and can solve the problem the global climate model faced and has been widely used in regional climate research, notable results have been achieved. In this paper, we sketched the development of the regional climate model, summarized the latest research progress in the regional climate model, the world's major regional climate models, and the development of climate scenarios. And we also summarized the general trend of climate change in different regions of the world from temperature and precipitation, research findings in different regions can help to have a better understanding of future climate change and also can help policymakers develop appropriate applicability strategies that will reduce the loss caused by climate change. Although the models used by the researchers may be different, the precipitation estimates are not the same, and there are significant regional characteristics in different region, almost all studies agree that in the future the world will continue to experience a process of sustained warming. Based on a summary of future climate change in different regions, then we discussed the current problems of the regional climate model, including the uncertainty of the model itself, the uncertainty of emissions scenarios and the complexity of the earth-atmosphere system. Finally, for the problems in the regional climate model, we summarized the solutions in term of current regional climate models, and looked forward to the development of the regional climate model and give the trend of the future regional climate model in China.

关键词

气候变化 / 区域气候模式 / 未来气候情景 / 气温 / 降水

Key words

Climate change / regional climate mod / future climate scena / temperature / precipitation

引用本文

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

导出引用
张磊;王春燕;潘小多. 基于区域气候模式未来气候变化研究综述. 高原气象. 2018, 37(5): 1440-1448 https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00018
张磊;王春燕;潘小多. A Review of Future Climate Change Based on Regional Climate Models. Plateau Meteorology. 2018, 37(5): 1440-1448 https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00018

参考文献

[1]Adeniyi M O, 2016. The consequences of the IPCC AR5 RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios on precipitation in West Africa[J]. Climatic Change, 139(2):245-263.
[2]Akhter J, Das L, Deb A, 2016. CMIP5 ensemble-based spatial rainfall projection over homogeneous zones of India[J]. Climate Dyn, 49(5/6):1885-1916.
[3]Almazroui M, Islam M N, Al-Khalaf A K, et al, 2016. Best convective parameterization scheme within RegCM4 to downscale CMIP5 multi-model data for the CORDEX-MENA/Arab domain[J]. Theor Appl Climatol, 124(3/4):807-823.
[4]Andrys J, Kala J, Lyons T J, 2017. Regional climate projections of mean and extreme climate for the southwest of Western Australia (1970-1999 compared to 2030-2059)[J]. Climate Dyn, 48(5/6):1723-1747.
[5]Batista R J R, Gon?alves F L T, Rocha R P D, 2016. Present climate and future projections of the thermal comfort index for the metropolitan region of S?o Paulo, Brazil[J]. Climatic Change, 137(3/4):439-454.
[6]Beniston M, Stephenson D B, Christensen O B, et al, 2007. Future extreme events in European climate:An exploration of regional climate model projections[J]. Climatic Change, 81(1):71-95.
[7]Chen H P, Sun J Q, Chen X L, 2013. Future changes of drought and flood events in China under a global warming scenario[J]. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett, 6(1):8-13.
[8]Déqué M, Rowell D P, Lüthi D, et al, 2007. An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe:Assessing uncertainties in model projections[J]. Climatic Change, 81(1):53-70.
[9]Diallo I, Giorgi F, Stordal F, 2018. Influence of Lake Malawi on regional climate from a double-nested regional climate model experiment[J]. Climate Dyn, 50(9/10):3397-3411.
[10]Dickinson R E, Errico R M, Giorgi F, et al, 1989. A regional climate model for the western United States[J]. Climatic Change, 15(3):383-422.
[11]Ding Y H, Shi X L, Liu Y M, et al, 2006. Multi-year simulations and experimental seasonal predictions for rainy seasons in China by using a nested regional climate model (RegCM_NCC). Part Ⅰ:Sensitivity Study[J]. Adv Atmos Sci, 23(4):487-503.
[12]Dosio A, 2016. Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models[J]. Climate Dyn, 49(1/2):493-519.
[13]Edoardo B, Paola M, Myriam M, et al, 2017. Numerical simulation of the period 1971-2100 over the mediterranean area with a regional model, Scenario SRES-A1B[J]. Sustainability, 9(12):2192.
[14]Fotso-Nguemo T C, Vondou D A, Tchawoua C, et al, 2017. Assessment of simulated rainfall and temperature from the regional climate model REMO and future changes over Central Africa[J]. Climate Dyn, 48(11/12):3685-3705.
[15]Gao X J, Shi Y, Zhang D F, et al, 2012. Climate change in China in the 21<sup>st</sup> century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model[J]. Chinses Sci Bull, 57(10):1188-1195.
[16]Giorgi F, 1990. Simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model[J]. J Climate, 3(9):941-964.
[17]Giorgi F, Bi X Q, Pal J S, 2004. Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. I. Present-day climate (1961-1990)[J]. Climate Dyn, 23(7/8):839-858.
[18]Haeberli W, Beniston M, 1998. Climate change and its impacts on glaciers and permafrost in the Alps[J]. Ambio, 27(4):258-265.
[19]Hendrikx J, Hreinsson E ?, 2012. The potential impact of climate change on seasonal snow in New Zealand:Part Ⅱ-Industry vulnerability and future snowmaking potential[J]. Theor Appl Climatol, 110(4):619-630.
[20]IPCC, 2013a. Climate change 2013:Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B:Regional aspects. Working group Ⅱ contribution to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1199-1612.
[21]IPCC, 2013b. Climate change 2013:The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 208-221.
[22]Jaczewski A, Brzóska B, Wibig J, 2015. Comparison of temperature indices for three IPCC SRES scenarios based on RegCM simulations for Poland in 2011-2030 period[J]. Meteorol Z, 24(1):99-106.
[23]James R, Washington R, 2013. Changes in African temperature and precipitation associated with degrees of global warming[J]. Climatic Change, 117(4):859-872.
[24]Jeong D I, Sushama L, Diro G T, et al, 2015. Projected changes to high temperature events for Canada based on a regional climate model ensemble[J]. Climate Dyn, 46(9-10):3163-3180.
[25]Kurihara K, Ishihara K, Sasaki H, et al, 2005. Projection of climatic change over Japan due to global warming by high-resolution regional climate model in MRI[J]. SOLA, 1(1):97-100.
[26]Lee S, Bae D H, Cho C H, 2013. Changes in future precipitation over South Korea using a global high-resolution climate model[J]. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci, 49(5):619-624.
[27]Lenaerts J T M, Vizcaino M, Fyke J, et al, 2016. Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model[J]. Climate Dyn, 47(5/6):1367-1381.
[28]Li C E K, Fuhrmann C M, 2013. Climate of the Southeast USA:Past, present, and future[M]. Climate of the Southeast United States. Island Press/Center for Resource Economics, 845-854.
[29]Liang X Z, Kunkel K E, Samel A N, 2001. Development of a regional climate model for U. S. midwest applications. Part I:Sensitivity to buffer zone treatment[J]. J Climate, 14(23):4363-4378.
[30]Liu K, Jiang D B, Jian-Yong M A, 2012. Drought over China in the 21st Century:Results of RegCM3[J]. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett, 5(6):509-513.
[31]Marengo J A, Ambrizzi T, Rocha R P D, et al, 2010. Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century:intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models[J]. Climate Dyn, 35(6):1073-1097.
[32]Marengo J A, Torres RR, Alves L M, 2017. Drought in Northeast Brazil-past, present, and future[J]. Theor Appl Climatol, 129(3/4):1189-1200.
[33]Meleshko V P, Kattsov V M, Govorkova V A, et al, 2008. Climate of Russia in the 21st century. Part 3. Future climate changes calculated with an ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation CMIP3 models[J]. Russian Meteor Hydrol, 33(9):541-552.
[34]Mihailovi? D T, Dre?kovi? N, Arseni? I, et al, 2016. Impact of climate change on soil thermal and moisture regimes in Serbia:An analysis with data from regional climate simulations under SRES-A1B[J]. Sci Total Environ, 571(41):398-409.
[35]Nu?ez M N, Solman S A, Cabré M F, 2009. Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. Ⅱ:Climate change scenarios in the late twenty-first century[J]. Climate Dyn, 32(7-8):1081-1095.
[36]Ozturk T, Turp M T, Türke M, et al, 2016. Projected changes in temperature and precipitation climatology of central asia cordex region 8 by using regcm4.3. 5[J]. Atmos Res, 183:296-307.
[37]Pinto I, Lennard C, Tadross M, et al, 2016. Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models[J]. Climatic Change, 135(3/4):655-668.
[38]Przybylak R, 2016. Scenarios of the Arctic future climate[M]. The Climate of the Arctic. Springer International Publishing, 266-269.
[39]Saeed F, Almazroui M, Islam N, et al, 2017. Intensification of future heat waves in Pakistan:a study using CORDEX regional climate models ensemble[J]. Nat Hazards, 87(3):1635-1647.
[40]Sánchez E, Solman S, Remedio A R C, et al, 2015. Regional climate modelling in CLARIS-LPB:a concerted approach towards twenty-first century projections of regional temperature and precipitation over South America[J]. Climate Dyn, 45(7/8):2193-2212.
[41]Sanderson M G, Hemming D L, Betts R A, 2011. Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥ 4℃)global warming[J]. Phil Trans R Soc A, 369(1934):85-98.
[42]Swain S, Hayhoe K, 2015. CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America[J]. Climate Dyn, 44(9/10):2737-2750.
[43]Thatcher M, Mcgregor J, Dix M, et al, 2015. A new approach for coupled regional climate modeling using more than 10, 000 cores[C]//International Symposium on Environmental Software Systems. Springer, Cham, 599-607.
[44]Tiwari P R, Kar S C, Mohanty U C, et al, 2015. The role of land surface schemes in the regional climate model(RegCM) for seasonal scale simulations over Western Himalaya[J]. Atmósfera, 28(2):129-142.
[45]Wang J X, Huang J K, Yang J, 2014. Overview of impacts of climate change and adaptation in China's agriculture[J]. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(1):1-17.
[46]Xu J Y, Shi Y, Gao X J, et al, 2013. Projected changes in climate extremes over China in the 21st century from a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3)[J]. Chinese Sci Bull, 58(12):1443-1452.
[47]Dong G T, Chen B D, Chen B M, et al, 2016. The improvement of predicting extreme heat event of Eastern China in summer 2013 through correcting lateral boundary condition of regional climate model[J]. J Meteor, 42(1):97-106.<br/>董广涛, 陈葆德, 陈伯民, 等, 2016.边界强迫场订正的区域气候模式对2013年夏季中国东部极端高温预测的改进试验[J].气象, 42(1):97-106.
[48]Han Z Y, Gao X J, Shi Y, et al, 2015. Development of Chinese high resolution land cover data for theRegCM4/CLM and its impact on regional climate simulation[J]. J Glaciol Geocryol, 37(4):857-866.<br/>韩振宇, 高学杰, 石英, 等, 2015.中国高精度土地覆盖数据在RegCM4/CLM模式中的引入及其对区域气候模拟影响的分析[J].冰川冻土, 37(4):857-866.
[49]Han Z Y, Zhou T J, Zou L W, 2016. Projected summer climate changes over South Asia based on the nested FGOALS/RegCM Model[J]. Climatic Environ Res, 21 (2):153-166.<br/>韩振宇, 周天军, 邹立维, 2016. FGOALS/RegCM动力降尺度对南亚夏季气候变化的预估[J].气候与环境研究, 21 (2):153-166.
[50]Liu Y J, Dai J H, Chen P F, et al, 2016. Temporal-spatial variation of climate factors in africa under representative concentration pathways scenario 4.5[J]. Geo-Inf Sci, 18(11):1522-1528.<br/>刘玉洁, 戴君虎, 陈鹏飞, 等, 2016.未来RCP4.5情景下非洲地区主要气候要素时空演变特征[J].地球信息科学学报, 18(11):1522-1528.
[51]Shi Q C, 2006. Report on future climate change from the UK[J]. China Water Resour, 4(21):52-53.<br/>石秋池, 2006.英国关于未来气候变化的报告[J].中国水利, (4):52-53.
[52]Wei X Q, Zuo H C, Wu L Y, et al, 2016. The impact of New ocean turbulence parameterization scheme introduced into RegCM4.3 climate model on the summer precipitation simulation in China[J]. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 52(5):664-651.<br/>卫翔谦, 左洪超, 武利阳, 等, 2016. RegCM4.3气候模式引入新的海洋湍流参数化方案对中国夏季降水模拟的影响[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 52(5):644-651.
[53]Wu J G, Lü J J, Ai L, 2009. The impacts of climate change on the biodiversity:Vulnerability and Adaptation[J]. Ecol Environ, 18(2):693-703.<br/>吴建国, 吕佳佳, 艾丽, 2009.气候变化对生物多样性的影响:脆弱性和适应[J].生态环境学报, 18(2):693-703.
[54]Xiong Z, 2004. The multiyear surface climatology of RIEMS over East Asia[J]. Climatic Environ Res, 9(2):28-37.<br/>熊喆, 2004.区域气候模式RIEMS对东亚气候的模拟[J].气候与环境研究, 9(2):28-37.
[55]Xu X Y, Wang Y F, 2016. Simulation of the effect of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau anomalous heating on the downstream flow from May to August by RegCM4.0[J]. Plateau Meteor, 35(5):1169-1181. DOI:10.7522/j.issn. 1000-0534.2015.00058.<br/>徐小玉, 王亚非, 2016.利用RegCM4.0模拟5-8月青藏高原异常加热的下游效应[J].高原气象, 35(5):1169-1181.
[56]Zhang D F, Han Z Y, Shi Y, 2017. Comparison of climate projection between the driving CSIRO-Mk3.6. 0 and the downscaling simulation of RegCM4.4 over China[J]. Adv Clim Chang Res, 13(6):557-568.<br/>张冬峰, 韩振宇, 石英, 2017. CSIRO-Mk3.6. 0模式及其驱动下RegCM4.4模式对中国气候变化的预估[J].气候变化研究进展, 13(6):557-568.
[57]Zhai Y J, Li Y H, Xu Y, 2016. Aridity change characteristics over northern region of China under RCPs scenario[J]. Plateau Meteor, 35(1):94-106. DOI:10.7522/j.issn. 1000-0534.2014.00078.<br/>翟颖佳, 李耀辉, 徐影, 2016. RCPs情景下中国北方地区干旱气候变化特征[J].高原气象, 35(1):94-106.
[58]Zong P S, Zhou J, 2017. Simulation on summer monsoon precipitation over eastern China by using regional spectral model[J]. J Meteor Sci, 37(1):101-109.<br/>宗培书, 周晶, 2017. RSM模式对中国东部夏季降水模拟能力的检验[J].气象科学, 37(1):101-109.

基金

国家自然科学基金项目（41471292，91425303）
PDF(541 KB)

1048

Accesses

0

Citation

Detail
段落导航
相关文章

本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持：support@magtech.com.cn

/

〈 〉