基于区域气候模式未来气候变化研究综述

张磊;王春燕;潘小多

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高原气象
高原气象 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (5) : 1440-1448. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00018
综述

基于区域气候模式未来气候变化研究综述

  • 张磊;王春燕;潘小多
作者信息 +

A Review of Future Climate Change Based on Regional Climate Models

  • ZHANG Lei;WANG Chunyan;PAN Xiaoduo
Author information +
History +

摘要

随着全球气候变化愈加剧烈，区域气候的差异化特征越来越明显，单单利用全球气候模式对区域气候进行研究已经不能满足时空尺度的要求。由于区域气候模式具有更高的空间分辨率等优势，使用区域气候模式能够有效解决这一问题，目前区域气候模式已在全球范围内得到广泛应用。本文简述了区域气候模式发展历程、最新研究进展以及全球主流的动力降尺度区域模式，归纳了气候情景发展；分别从气温和降水两方面着重总结了区域气候模式在全球不同区域不同情景应用情况，分析了未来全球不同区域气候变化趋势，尽管不同研究者所使用模式存在差异，对未来降水预估不尽相同，区域性比较明显，但几乎所有研究一致认为未来全球仍将经历一个持续增暖过程。文章最后对区域气候模式模拟过程中存在的问题进行了概述并对未来区域气候模式发展方向进行了展望，给出中国区域气候模式未来发展方向。

Abstract

Regional climate differentiation is becoming more and more obvious with global climate change, regional climate tends to be extreme. Droughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, snow, super typhoons and other extreme weather events that have brought huge losses all over the world every year are very frequent across the global. Research on small-scale regional climate using the global climate models can't meet the requirements of spatial scale, temporal scale, the regional scale assessment of climate change and adaptation research. The global climate model reproduce climatic characteristics from large scale and it can't finely show the local information at different elevations. A full understanding of the inter-regional climate differences is very important for a more accurate prediction of future climate change. As the regional climate models have a more complete physical mechanism and higher spatial resolution, it has made a great deal of improvement over the global climate model and can solve the problem the global climate model faced and has been widely used in regional climate research, notable results have been achieved. In this paper, we sketched the development of the regional climate model, summarized the latest research progress in the regional climate model, the world's major regional climate models, and the development of climate scenarios. And we also summarized the general trend of climate change in different regions of the world from temperature and precipitation, research findings in different regions can help to have a better understanding of future climate change and also can help policymakers develop appropriate applicability strategies that will reduce the loss caused by climate change. Although the models used by the researchers may be different, the precipitation estimates are not the same, and there are significant regional characteristics in different region, almost all studies agree that in the future the world will continue to experience a process of sustained warming. Based on a summary of future climate change in different regions, then we discussed the current problems of the regional climate model, including the uncertainty of the model itself, the uncertainty of emissions scenarios and the complexity of the earth-atmosphere system. Finally, for the problems in the regional climate model, we summarized the solutions in term of current regional climate models, and looked forward to the development of the regional climate model and give the trend of the future regional climate model in China.

关键词

气候变化 / 区域气候模式 / 未来气候情景 / 气温 / 降水

Key words

Climate change / regional climate mod / future climate scena / temperature / precipitation

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导出引用
张磊;王春燕;潘小多. 基于区域气候模式未来气候变化研究综述. 高原气象. 2018, 37(5): 1440-1448 https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00018
张磊;王春燕;潘小多. A Review of Future Climate Change Based on Regional Climate Models. Plateau Meteorology. 2018, 37(5): 1440-1448 https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2018.00018

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基金

国家自然科学基金项目（41471292，91425303）
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